000
ABNT20 KNHC 150529
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S. Coast:
A non-tropical low pressure area has formed along a frontal boundary
a couple of hundred miles off the southeastern U.S. coast and is
producing winds to gale force north of its center. The low is
forecast to move northwestward or northward over the warm waters of
the Gulf Stream toward the coasts of North Carolina and South
Carolina, and it could become a subtropical or tropical storm during
the next day or two if the associated front dissipates and showers
and thunderstorms become sufficiently organized.

Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, the low is
likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rains with the potential for
flash flooding, coastal flooding, and dangerous beach conditions to
portions of the U.S. Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coast during the
next couple of days, and interests in these areas should monitor
the system's progress. Additional information can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 02:39:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2024 03:22:55 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150238 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 Gordon's surface circulation has become fully exposed this evening and is displaced about 150 mi west of the remaining deep convective mass. The deep-layer westerly shear likely has increased during the past few hours. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory and is based on constrained subjective satellite intensity T-number estimates from TAFB and SAB. Based on the statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance and global model sounding forecasts, Gordon should continue to struggle and weaken during the next few days while moving through a harsh thermodynamic environment. In fact, the global models agree that the cyclone will become a remnant low toward the end of the week as it commences a gradual north-northwestward turn. For now, the surface circulation is expected to remain intact, and Gordon is expected to continue moving generally northward, where atmospheric conditions could become less hostile. The official intensity forecast shows Gordon maintaining depression strength through day 5 in deference to the global model and HCCA solutions. The Decay-SHIPS, LGEM, and IVCN intensity aids, however, continue to show significant re-strengthening late in the period. Consequently, subsequent advisories may need changes, particularly if the global models align more with the intensity aids mentioned above. Gordon's initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward or 245/9 kt and is steered by a low- to mid-tropospheric ridge extending west-southwestward from high pressure over the North Atlantic. Gordon should continue toward the west-southwest or west during the next 60-72 hours. Afterward, a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forecast in response to an amplifying mid- to upper-tropospheric trough. As the cyclone approaches this break in the ridge, the cyclone should gradually turn toward the north-northwest by the end of the period. This forecast track scenario once again assumes that the cyclone will survive during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.7N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 19.6N 45.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 19.3N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 19.3N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 19.4N 50.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 20.2N 51.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 22.0N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 150237 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

...GORDON WEAKENS AND TURNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 14 the center of Gordon was located near 19.7, -43.8 with movement WSW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150236 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...GORDON WEAKENS AND TURNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 43.8W ABOUT 1345 MI...2165 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 43.8 West. Gordon is moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly slower west-southwestward or westward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon is expected to become a depression later tonight or on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 904 WTNT22 KNHC 150236 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 43.8W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......140NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 43.8W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 43.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 19.6N 45.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 19.4N 48.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.3N 50.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 19.4N 50.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.2N 51.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 22.0N 50.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 44.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142318
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form during the
next day or so along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the
southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics afterward over the warm
waters of the Gulf Stream and a subtropical or tropical depression
or storm could form in the next couple of days, while the system
moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 20:34:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 21:22:54 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142032 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 Over the past couple of hours, the center of Gordon had been exposed to the west of the convective canopy. However, there have been recent bursts of convection closer to the center of the storm and the overall satellite presentation of the system has improved. The environment surrounding Gordon is still unfavorable, with moderate westerly vertical wind shear and a dry stable airmass continuing to have some impact on the cyclone. Gordon is likely in somewhat of a steady state, and the initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory. This agrees with the subjective and objective intensity estimates. The tropical storm is forecast to weaken to a depression on Sunday, as it continues to experience moderate shear and a drier and more stable airmass. Model guidance has trended weaker towards the end of the period and the intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus aids. Global models have continued to trend towards Gordon struggling to produce convection, and it is possible Gordon may degenerate into a remnant low or surface trough by the middle of the forecast period. The current forecast keeps Gordon as a tropical cyclone through the period, although this could be generous and subsequent changes may be needed in future advisories. Gordon is tracking westward at 270/9 kt, and a gradual turn toward the west-southwest with a slower forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days, in agreement with the latest track guidance. A shortwave trough approaching from the northwest of Gordon will open a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge and allow the tropical cyclone to turn slowly northward. The new track forecast is nearly the same as the previous forecast, except with a slightly slower forward motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 20.3N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 20.1N 44.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 20.0N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 19.9N 47.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 20.6N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 21.6N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 142032 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY/MAHONEY

...GORDON GOING WESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 14 the center of Gordon was located near 20.3, -42.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 142031 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 500 PM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...GORDON GOING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 42.9W ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 42.9 West. Gordon is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly slower westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon is forecast to weaken tonight and become a tropical depression on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 142031 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 42.9W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 42.9W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.1N 44.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 20.0N 45.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 19.9N 47.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.8N 48.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.8N 49.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 20.6N 51.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 21.6N 51.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 42.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/MAHONEY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141724
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gordon, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form in the next
day or so along a frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the
southeastern U.S. coastline. The system could gradually acquire
subtropical or tropical characteristics thereafter over the warm
waters of the Gulf Stream, and a subtropical or tropical depression
or storm could form in the next couple of days while the system
moves generally northwestward toward the coast. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 14:45:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 15:22:55 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141444 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 Gordon's center is exposed and located west of its deep convection. This structure is a symptom of the moderate westerly vertical wind shear that continues to plague the tropical storm. Gordon is also struggling with the entrainment of dry and stable airmass. Despite these environmental challenges, a recent scatterometer pass shows the cyclone maintaining 40 kt maximum sustained winds. This data is the basis for the initial intensity of this advisory, and agrees with a blend of the objective and subjective estimates. The scatterometer pass also shows a lopsided wind field, with tropical storm force winds limited to the northern semicircle of Gordon. In the southern semicircle, winds are weak and the vortex shows signs of elongation. The cyclone continues to move into a dry and stable airmass, which in conjunction with the ongoing shear is forecast to induce weakening today and tonight. Gordon is forecast to become a tropical depression on Sunday. Thereafter, the forecast maintains the cyclone as a tropical depression through the early part of next week, but it is possible that the system degenerates into a remnant low or a surface trough during that time. In fact, the GFS model indicates convection could collapse as soon as tonight or early Sunday. The ECMWF model maintains pulsing convection a bit longer. By the middle of next week, the environment should become less hostile and allow for some re-strengthening of Gordon. The intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory and remains on the lower end of the guidance beyond 72 h due to the uncertain future of the cyclone. Gordon is tracking westward 280/8 kt, and a gradual turn toward the west-southwest with a slower forward speed is forecast over the next couple of days, in good agreement with the latest track guidance. Model spread increases beyond 72 h due to differences in intensity and the overall structure of Gordon at that time. The current forecast continues the system slowly west-southwestward due to lack of steering flow. Towards the end of the forecast period, an approaching shortwave trough will weaken the mid-level subtropical ridge and would allow the system to turn northward. The updated track forecast is close to the previous advisory near the simple consensus aids, and shows a gradual turn toward the northwest and north beyond Day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.1N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 20.0N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 19.9N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 19.7N 46.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.6N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 19.5N 49.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 19.5N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 20.0N 50.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 21.5N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 141443 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GORDON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GORDON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY/MAHONEY

...GORDON CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 14 the center of Gordon was located near 20.1, -41.7 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141443 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gordon Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...GORDON CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 41.7W ABOUT 1195 MI...1925 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gordon was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 41.7 West. Gordon is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly slower westward or west-southwestward motion is forecast during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gordon is forecast to continue to weaken and become a depression on Sunday. Gradual re-strengthening is possible by the middle part of next week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Mahoney