Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 21:29:36 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 20:55:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 20:55:08 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 062053 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Milton is rapidly intensifying. Satellite images indicate very deep convection in the eyewall and hints of an eye starting to appear. The last fix from the aircraft showed that the central pressure was down to 985 mb, about 3 mb less than 80 minutes prior, and winds supporting 70 kt at the surface. Since that time, satellite images continue to show further organization, and the initial wind speed is set to 75 kt. Milton is moving just south of due east at about 6 kt. This equatorward motion has been more than expected probably due to a stronger low/ mid-level frontal low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The frontal feature is forecast to weaken while it moves across Florida and gradually lose its influence on Milton. This evolution should allow the hurricane to turn eastward on Monday and then accelerate to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula ahead of a trough moving offshore of Texas. The NHC forecast is a bit south of the previous one through 48 hours, following the trend of the guidance at that time, and the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for a portion of the northern coast of Yucatan. Later on, the guidance is similar to, or slightly north of the last cycle, and very little change is made to the forecast near Florida. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. The intensity forecast appears straightforward at first, with rapid intensification likely while the small hurricane remains within light shear and over very deep warm waters. Intensity guidance is about as bullish as I've seen in this part of the basin, with almost everything showing a peak intensity of category 4 or 5 in the southern Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. The NHC forecast is raised from the previous one and lies near the intensity consensus model and still could be too low. Later on, vertical wind shear is forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very dangerous impacts spread out over a big area. There is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life- threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula midweek. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. 2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life- threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight or early Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida through Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to Milton expected on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.4N 93.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 22.4, -93.8 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 062052 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... ...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 93.8W ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Cabo Catoche and a Tropical Storm Warning from east of Cabo Catoche to Cancun. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida tonight or early Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 93.8 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected today. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore flow. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 062052 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 27(37) 1(38) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 32(44) 1(45) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 22(28) X(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 23(38) X(38) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 35(50) 1(51) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) X(22) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 29(53) X(53) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 32(58) 1(59) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 36(71) 1(72) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 29(39) X(39) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 36(71) 2(73) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 29(39) X(39) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 30(65) 2(67) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 1(30) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 20(55) 1(56) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) X(21) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 15(49) X(49) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 9(26) X(26) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 8(24) X(24) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 36(38) 4(42) X(42) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 2(48) X(48) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 61(63) 8(71) 1(72) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 8(38) X(38) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 11(60) X(60) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 9(31) X(31) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) X(16) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 70(72) 12(84) X(84) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 13(55) X(55) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 11(35) X(35) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 61(61) 18(79) 1(80) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 20(51) X(51) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15(31) X(31) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 19(58) X(58) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 17(31) X(31) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) X(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 1(18) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 7(26) X(26) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 6(36) X(36) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) X(15) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MERIDA MX 34 1 25(26) 26(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) MERIDA MX 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36) 1(37) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 33(38) 11(49) X(49) X(49) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) X(15) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 062051 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 93.8W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 15SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 93.8W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 94.1W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.2N 92.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.2N 90.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.6N 89.0W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.2N 85.1W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 27.0N 83.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 29.8N 77.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 20SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 210NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.4N 68.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...110NE 20SE 100SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 93.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 20:37:35 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 21:23:16 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 062037 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Satellite imagery suggests that Kirk has begun the process of extratropical transition. Most of the convection is located on the north side of the low-level center due to strong south-southwesterly wind shear. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB range from 65-75 kt, while the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65-80 kt. The intensity has been lowered to 75 kt for this advisory. ASCAT data from earlier this morning necessitated an increase in the initial wind radii, showing that Kirk is a very large hurricane. There have been no significant changes to the track reasoning. A narrow mid- to upper-level ridge east of Kirk will weaken over the next 24-36 h, allowing Kirk to turn east-northeastward or eastward within the zonal mid-latitude westerly flow. The new NHC track forecast lies nearly on top of the previous NHC track, although the new track is a bit slower. This track is relatively close to the TVCA and a bit slower than the HCCA corrected consensus guidance. The NHC forecast shows Kirk passing north of the Azores Monday night and Tuesday as an extratropical cyclone, and should reach western Europe late Wednesday, where it could bring gale force winds. Kirk is forecast to continue to gradually weaken as it reaches cooler waters by tonight. Additionally, the southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase significantly over the system by early Monday morning. Global models show the development of frontal features on Monday, and extratropical transition has been moved up to 24 h in the latest official forecast. Despite gradual weakening as Kirk becomes post-tropical, the cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful cyclone until it reaches the coast of western Europe. Therefore, the system will continue to spread very large swells across a large portion of the North Atlantic Ocean for a few more days. The latest NHC intensity forecast is at the high end of the guidance during the extratropical portion of the forecast, in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF global models. By early Thursday, the cyclone will become elongated over western Europe, and the latest NHC forecast shows dissipation in 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 37.0N 46.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 39.4N 42.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 42.1N 37.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/0600Z 43.3N 30.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 08/1800Z 43.6N 21.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/0600Z 44.7N 11.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1800Z 47.1N 2.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 20:36:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 21:29:22 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 062036 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 3( 3) 17(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

...KIRK SPREADING LARGE SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 6 the center of Kirk was located near 37.0, -46.2 with movement NNE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 961 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 062035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 ...KIRK SPREADING LARGE SWELLS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.0N 46.2W ABOUT 1050 MI...1695 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 46.2 West. Kirk is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected tonight. An acceleration toward the east-northeast or east is expected by Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is expected over the next few days and Kirk is expected to become post-tropical on Monday, it will remain a large cyclone with a large wind field through the early part of this week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 300 miles (480 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States and portions of Atlantic Canada. These swells will spread to the Azores on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062035 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Leslie's satellite imagery has become a little more ragged as southwesterly shear has disrupted the overall convective pattern. The deep inner core convection has become a little more broken the last few hours. Subjective and objective estimates range from 75 to 85 kt, with a T4.5 from both TAFB and SAB. Based on these satellite estimates, the initial intensity is held at 80 kt. Leslie is moving northwestward (310/8 kt) while being steered by a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The ridge will continue to build to the northeast of the system, which should steer the hurricane northwestward throughout the forecast period. Models continue to be in good agreement, the NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous which remains near the latest consensus aids. The hurricane has started to enter a more hostile environment. Southwesterly shear has started to increase, with drier mid-levels, and upper-level convergence along the forecast path. The latest NHC forecast follows the latest model trends with gradual weakening beginning on Monday. Since Leslie is a relatively small tropical cyclone, it could be more susceptible to these negative factors and weaken even faster than the NHC forecast later in the period, as suggested by some of the global and hurricane regional models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.0N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.6N 43.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 44.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 20.3N 46.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 21.2N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 22.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.1N 51.7W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 062034 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 46.2W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. 50 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT.......260NE 240SE 190SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 500SE 540SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 46.2W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 47.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 39.4N 42.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 70SE 70SW 40NW. 50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 110NW. 34 KT...260NE 270SE 210SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.1N 37.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT...110NE 140SE 120SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 280SE 230SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.3N 30.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 120SE 110SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 270SE 250SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.6N 21.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 250SE 250SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 44.7N 11.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 210SE 220SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 47.1N 2.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 130SE 160SW 80NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 46.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 062034 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Oct 6 the center of Leslie was located near 14.0, -38.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 062034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 ...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 38.6W ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 38.6 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Monday and continue through mid-week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 446 WTNT23 KNHC 062034 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 38.6W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 38.6W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 38.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.6N 43.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 44.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.3N 46.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.2N 47.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 22.5N 50.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.1N 51.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 38.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A HURRICANE... As of 1:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 22.5, -94.0 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.