000
ABNT20 KNHC 071736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and
has issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk,
located over the North Atlantic Ocean.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of disturbed weather located across portions of South
Florida, the Florida Straits and the northwestern Bahamas is
expected to move northeastward, where an area of low pressure could
form near the northwestern Bahamas. Some limited tropical or
subtropical development is possible while the low moves
northeastward to east-northeastward around 15 mph. However,
upper-level winds are likely to increase in a couple days, which
should prevent any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for some slow development of this system while
it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo
Verde Islands on Thursday or early Friday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 16:12:56 GMT

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 the center of Milton was located near 21.8, -90.8 with movement E at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 905 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 180 mph.

Issued at 1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 567 WTNT64 KNHC 071558 CCA TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Corrected for location/distances in the summary section ...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches). SUMMARY OF 1055 AM CDT...1555 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 91.6W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake/Brown

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 15:28:01 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 14:57:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 14:57:07 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 071455 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover, and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in 4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an 80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix 2007 in our records). The hurricane is still moving east-southeastward, now about 8 kt. Global models continue to insist that Milton will turn eastward soon as the frontal low pressure area over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico departs. The new forecast near Mexico is about the same as the previous one, but is close enough to bring hurricane-force winds to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula. Later, a new mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should then cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed. The latest model fields are a bit left of the previous runs, and the official NHC track forecast is shifted to the north. This forecast is close to a consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models. Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south. Milton is likely to become a category 5 hurricane later today with light shear and very warm waters in its path. By tomorrow, its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken but grow larger. After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland. After landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition, which should be complete by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 21.7N 91.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 14:54:11 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 071453 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) X(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 3(46) X(46) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 48(49) 3(52) 1(53) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 3(25) X(25) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 2(34) X(34) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 46(48) 1(49) X(49) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 59(61) 3(64) X(64) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 1(29) X(29) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 62(66) 1(67) X(67) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 1(37) X(37) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 66(70) 2(72) X(72) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 1(36) X(36) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 74(79) 2(81) X(81) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 3(46) X(46) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 74(79) 2(81) X(81) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 3(47) X(47) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 2(24) X(24) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 60(67) 2(69) X(69) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 2(30) X(30) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 1(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 45(52) 2(54) X(54) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) 1(44) X(44) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) X(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) X(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 18(34) X(34) X(34) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 15(45) X(45) X(45) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 40(73) X(73) X(73) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 29(35) X(35) X(35) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 49(64) X(64) X(64) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) X(32) X(32) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 56(91) X(91) X(91) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 57(66) X(66) X(66) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) X(44) X(44) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 70(89) X(89) X(89) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 64(67) 1(68) X(68) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 43(44) 1(45) X(45) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 59(68) 1(69) X(69) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) 1(41) X(41) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 1(27) X(27) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 27(37) 1(38) X(38) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) X(17) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MERIDA MX 34 89 8(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) MERIDA MX 50 31 28(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) MERIDA MX 64 5 16(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) COZUMEL MX 34 1 21(22) 9(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) COZUMEL MX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 3(35) X(35) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 5( 5) 40(45) 4(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 071453 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.. ...FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 91.7W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Lake Okeechobee. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Campeche to south of Celestun * Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * Campeche to south of Celestun A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee * Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 91.7 West. Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is forecast to become a category 5 hurricane later today and become a large hurricane over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 933 mb (27.55 inches) based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin early this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to continue to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 071452 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 91.7W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 110 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 933 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 91.7W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.5N 90.4W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.2N 88.3W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.6N 86.4W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 35SE 35SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 55SE 55SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.5N 84.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.7N 82.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.2N 80.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 60SW 110NW. 34 KT...250NE 160SE 120SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 30.8N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...250NE 150SE 160SW 160NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 31.0N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 91.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 14:46:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 15:31:32 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 071445 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 Leslie appears slightly less organized based on infrared and visible satellite imagery. However, an SSMIS microwave pass from a few hours ago indicated that there was still a feature resembling an eye on the 91-GHz imagery. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are T-4.5/77 kt. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65 to 84 kt. The initial intensity is nudged down slightly to 75 kt, based on the degraded satellite presentation noted on conventional satellite imagery. Leslie is moving northwestward, or 315/11 kt. Leslie is expected to move around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast of the cyclone and turn gradually north-northwestward to northward toward the end of the week. The NHC track forecast was nudged only slightly to the right of the previous official forecast during the first 72 h of the forecast and is close to the various track consensus aids. Leslie will remain over warm ocean water through the 5-day forecast period, and it will remain in an environment of relatively low vertical wind shear for another 48 h. However, dry air in the lower and middle troposphere should prevent any strengthening. In fact, the bulk of the intensity guidance shows weakening, and the NHC forecast follows suit. Due to Leslie's small size, its core seems to be vulnerable to the dry air, despite the low shear. Only minor changes are made to the official intensity forecast, which lies near the lower end of the intensity guidance. Beyond 48 h, Leslie is forecast to run into strong northerly wind shear as the cyclone interacts with an upper-level trough. This shear will cause continued weakening. Simulated satellite imagery is showing Leslie losing its convection beyond day 4, and the NHC forecast shows the tropical cyclone becoming post-tropical in 4 to 5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 16.4N 41.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 17.5N 42.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 19.0N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 20.5N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 21.6N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 22.4N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 23.1N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 24.7N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 27.0N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Hagen

...LESLIE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Oct 7 the center of Leslie was located near 16.4, -41.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 071443 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 ...LESLIE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 41.2W ABOUT 1120 MI...1805 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 41.2 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through the week, and Leslie is expected to weaken to a tropical storm in a day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 071443 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 41.2W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 41.2W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 40.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.5N 42.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.0N 44.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N 45.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.6N 47.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.4N 48.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.1N 49.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.7N 50.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 48.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 41.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 071443 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 14:43:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 15:24:39 GMT

Issued at 300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 365 WTNT42 KNHC 071441 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 300 PM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 Satellite imagery and model analyses indicate that Kirk has completed its transition to an extratropical cyclone. Therefore, this will be the final NHC advisory. Kirk is expected to remain a large and powerful extratropical cyclone over the next couple of days as it moves east-northeastward across the northeastern Atlantic Ocean toward western Europe. Gradual weakening is forecast, and the intensity forecast best matches the GFS and ECMWF global models. Very little change has been made to the previous NHC track forecast. The track forecast is near the consensus models. Kirk will be passing north of the Azores over the next 24 hours. Large breaking waves are likely along portions of the coasts of the Azores, along with gusty winds. Swells from Kirk may continue to induce a high rip current risk along portions of the U.S. East Coast for another day or so. These swells will affect Bermuda, Atlantic Canada and the Azores for a few more days. Kirk will move over western Europe by late Wednesday. Future information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 41.7N 38.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/0000Z 43.7N 16.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/1200Z 45.4N 6.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 10/0000Z 48.5N 4.5E 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

...KIRK BECOMES A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... As of 3:00 PM GMT Mon Oct 7 the center of Kirk was located near 41.7, -38.4 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.