Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080834 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight. The pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data showed a double eyewall structure. More recent microwave images show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is completing an eyewall replacement cycle. These eyewall replacement cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands. Based on the aircraft data from a few hours ago, the initial intensity is set at 135 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Milton again later this morning. The major hurricane is beginning to gain latitude, and the latest initial motion estimate is 075/10 kt. A turn to the northeast with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today and Wednesday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. This motion should take the core of Milton to west-central Florida Wednesday night. After the hurricane passes Florida, a faster east-northeastward motion is expected within a more zonal steering flow. Little change was made to the track forecast through landfall, but this prediction is a little slower while the system enters and moves over the Atlantic. Fluctuations in strength due to continued structural changes are likely during the next day or so while Milton moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. An increase in vertical wind shear will likely cause some weakening before the hurricane reaches Florida, but there is high confidence that Milton will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state. After landfall, more notable weakening is forecast and Milton is now expected to become extratropical by day 3 when it is over the Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance in best agreement with the hurricane regional models. Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today. 2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida. This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so. 3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas should be complete by tonight. 4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of Florida well ahead of Milton through early Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 22.3N 88.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 080833 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 16(32) X(32) X(32) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 20(40) X(40) X(40) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 13(22) X(22) X(22) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 14(41) X(41) X(41) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 33(61) X(61) X(61) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) X(27) X(27) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 42(47) 18(65) X(65) X(65) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 19(36) X(36) X(36) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 45(50) 28(78) X(78) X(78) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 26(41) X(41) X(41) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 49(56) 31(87) X(87) X(87) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 38(53) X(53) X(53) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) X(27) X(27) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 49(56) 31(87) X(87) X(87) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 37(53) X(53) X(53) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) X(27) X(27) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 45(52) 26(78) X(78) X(78) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 26(37) X(37) X(37) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 35(43) 17(60) X(60) X(60) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 12(48) X(48) X(48) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) X(19) X(19) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 4(17) X(17) X(17) MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) 12(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X 4( 4) 26(30) 8(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X 2( 2) 45(47) 29(76) 4(80) X(80) X(80) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 26(27) 42(69) 5(74) X(74) X(74) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 27(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 55(57) 37(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 17(17) 55(72) 6(78) X(78) X(78) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 44(48) 6(54) X(54) X(54) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) 55(87) 6(93) X(93) X(93) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 52(58) 13(71) X(71) X(71) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 13(50) X(50) X(50) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 12(12) 46(58) 7(65) X(65) X(65) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 9(33) X(33) X(33) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 19(30) 3(33) X(33) X(33) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 24(38) X(38) X(38) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 19(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 080832 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 88.9W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 924 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 300SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 88.9W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 89.3W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 45NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...200NE 160SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 120NW. 34 KT...240NE 170SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 170SE 160SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 88.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 the center of Milton was located near 22.3, -88.9 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 924 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080832 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 88.9W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Campeche to south of Celestun * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * Campeche to south of Celestun * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 88.9 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to make landfall in Florida Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 924 mb (27.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in the warning area in Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in tropical storm warning area today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... As of 1:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 the center of Milton was located near 22.1, -89.2 with movement E at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 924 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

Issued at 100 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 080541 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE MILTON JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 89.2W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 585 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB...27.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Campeche to south of Celestun * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * Campeche to south of Celestun * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 89.2 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the east- northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane will likely make landfall in Florida Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The most recent minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 924 mb (27.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida tonight through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 080526
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure has formed near the northern Bahamas
and is expected to move northeastward into the southwestern Atlantic
later today. Some additional development of this system is possible
during the next day or so while the low moves northeastward to
east-northeastward around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are likely to
increase later in the week, which should limit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple of days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable for some limited development of this system
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic, moving near the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday or
early Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 04:16:43 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 03:21:37 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 02:42:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 02:42:10 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 02:41:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 03:23:00 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080241 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Milton. Earlier, the Hurricane Hunters found that the minimum central pressure in the eye had dropped to an estimated 897 mb. Based on this, Milton had the fifth lowest central pressure in the Atlantic basin hurricane record. Subsequent center penetrations by the aircraft indicated somewhat higher central pressures. Also, flight-level and dropsonde data from the aircraft suggested some decrease in intensity, and the advisory intensity is set to 145 kt. The decrease is likely the result of an eyewall replacement reported by the Hurricane Hunters, leading to a double wind maximum radially from the center. Notwithstanding, Milton still remains an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane. The initial motion is eastward, or 090/8 kt. Milton should continue to pass close to the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday. Then, the flow on the eastern side of a mid-tropospheric shortwave trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed later on Tuesday and Wednesday. This motion should take the system across the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Later in the forecast period, Milton is expected to move east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the southeast U.S. coast while gradually losing tropical characteristics. The official track forecast is close to, but a little faster than, the model consensus. This is also very similar to the previous NHC forecast. As noted earlier, the track is closer to the model predicted fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south. So long as Milton remains in an environment of light shear and over very high oceanic heat content, its maximum intensity should be governed more by inner-core fluctuations. However the SHIPS diagnostics indicate a significant increase in vertical wind shear within 24 hours, likely associated with increasing southwesterly upper-level flow over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Therefore a decrease in intensity is predicted before Milton reaches the western coast of the Florida Peninsula. Regardless of the peak intensity, the eyewall replacement cycle will likely lead to an expansion of the destructive inner core of the hurricane during the next day or two. The system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland. Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from their local emergency management officials, as Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. 2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so. 3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion of the entire Florida Peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of Florida well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected Tuesday night through early Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 21.8N 89.9W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 22.3N 88.6W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 23.5N 86.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 25.0N 84.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 27.1N 83.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 28.6N 80.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 11/0000Z 29.4N 77.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 12/0000Z 30.3N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0000Z 31.0N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 125 WTNT43 KNHC 080240 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 Deep convection has continued to pulse this evening in Leslie, with the larger cirrus shield taking on an amorphous shape. Under the cirrus canopy, the last few SSMIS microwave passes suggest that the hurricane's structure continues to degrade, with the tighter inner-core seen yesterday at this time no longer observed. The subjective Dvorak estimates this evening were T4.0/65 kt from SAB and T4.5 from TAFB. However, the objective intensity estimates have decreased further, with the most recent DMINT down to 61 kt. Thus, the initial intensity was lowered slightly to 65 kt this advisory. The wind radii were adjusted a bit outward thanks to a helpful ASCAT-B pass earlier this evening. Leslie has maintained its northwestward motion, currently estimated at 310/12 kt. There is not a lot of new information to provide for the track reasoning this cycle, with Leslie rounding the western side of a subtropical ridge to its northeast. The hurricane should maintain its northwestward motion over the next day or two, followed by a turn northward towards the end of this week once it reaches the western edge of this synoptic steering feature. The track guidance this cycle is just a notch left of the prior forecast, and the NHC track has been nudged in that direction, but is still quite close to the prior track forecast. Leslie is currently battling a fairly marginal environment with mid-level southerly shear of 20-25 kt continuing to undercut the seemingly more favorable 200 mb upper-level flow. A ribbon of very dry environmental air that can be seen on GOES-16 water vapor imagery, which is likely being imported near Leslie's center, contributing to its degraded inner-core structure seen on microwave imagery. This shear is expected to persist, before quickly shifting out of the north and increasing above 40 kt after 48 h. Intensity guidance remains insistent that Leslie will weaken slowly at first, and then more dramatically after this shear increases. The GFS, ECMWF, and HAFS-A/B runs show Leslie quickly becoming devoid of convection after 72 h due to this shear, and the NHC forecast continues to show Leslie becoming a post-tropical cyclone in 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 18.4N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 19.6N 44.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 21.0N 46.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 22.2N 47.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 23.0N 48.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 23.8N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 25.0N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 28.0N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/0000Z 32.0N 43.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 02:40:22 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 080239 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 26(35) 1(36) X(36) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) X(43) X(43) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) X(25) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 23(37) X(37) X(37) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 46(59) 1(60) X(60) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) X(26) X(26) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 35(61) X(61) X(61) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) X(30) X(30) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 47(71) X(71) X(71) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 26(32) X(32) X(32) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 48(83) X(83) X(83) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 1(48) X(48) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 48(83) X(83) X(83) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 1(48) X(48) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 38(72) X(72) X(72) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) X(34) X(34) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 29(57) X(57) X(57) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 21(46) 1(47) X(47) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 7(18) X(18) X(18) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16) X(16) X(16) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 5(35) X(35) X(35) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 19(21) 20(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 50(67) 9(76) X(76) X(76) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 50(56) 11(67) X(67) X(67) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 10(31) X(31) X(31) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 70(86) 8(94) X(94) X(94) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 17(71) X(71) X(71) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 15(49) X(49) X(49) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 66(73) 18(91) X(91) X(91) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) 26(65) X(65) X(65) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 24(43) X(43) X(43) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 40(44) 19(63) X(63) X(63) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) X(32) X(32) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 90 X(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) COZUMEL MX 34 4 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 32(41) 1(42) X(42) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 1(14) X(14) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 2 22(24) 8(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

...LESLIE HANGING ON TO HURRICANE INTENSITY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Oct 7 the center of Leslie was located near 18.4, -43.5 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080238 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 ...LESLIE HANGING ON TO HURRICANE INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 43.5W ABOUT 1285 MI...2070 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 43.5 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days, followed by a turn more northward on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 080238 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE MILTON MOVING NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 the center of Milton was located near 21.8, -89.9 with movement E at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 914 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 165 mph.