Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 09:27:34 GMT

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090855 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Milton has been maintaining its strength as a catastrophic category 5 hurricane over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite and Doppler radar images indicate that the major hurricane has a compact, symmetric, and very powerful inner core. Based on aircraft data, the minimum pressure has dropped to 907 mb and the maximum sustained winds remain near 140 kt. The wind field of Milton is gradually expanding, and the wind radii have been adjusted based on a combination of the Hurricane Hunter data and ASCAT passes. There is an area of heavy rain beginning to spread across portions of southwestern and west-central Florida out ahead of Milton, and weather conditions will steadily deteriorate across portions of the Florida Gulf Coast throughout the day. Milton is moving northeastward at 12 kt in the flow between a mid- to upper-level trough over the northern Gulf and a ridge located over the Greater Antilles. This motion should generally continue until Milton makes landfall in Florida, which is likely to occur late tonight or early Thursday morning. After the hurricane reaches the coast, a turn to the east-northeast is expected as another trough approaches the system from the west. Milton should exit Florida and move over the Atlantic waters Thursday afternoon and accelerate eastward after that. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest models. It should be noted that this forecast is based on the model fields, not the interpolated models which appear to be too far south. Users are urged not to focus on the exact landfall point as the average error at 24 hours is about 40 miles. The global models agree that vertical wind shear is expected begin to increase over Milton later today, and that should cause some weakening. However, there is high confidence that Milton will remain a very dangerous hurricane when it reaches Florida, and maintain hurricane status as it moves across the state. The cyclone is expected to become extratropical over the Atlantic on Friday and gradually weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the high end of the model guidance. Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size while it moves across Florida. Additionally, a large region of tropical storm and hurricane-force winds could occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be rushed to completion. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local officials. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 24.5N 85.4W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W 115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 11/0600Z 28.8N 76.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 29.1N 73.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0600Z 29.7N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0600Z 32.1N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci/Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 090854 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.4W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 907 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 170 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 85.4W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 85.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.9N 84.3W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.4N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.2N 80.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.8N 76.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.1N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.7N 69.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 32.1N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 85.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 090854 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 11(12) 11(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) DAYTONA BEACH 34 1 14(15) 38(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 1 42(43) 22(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) THE VILLAGES 50 X 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) THE VILLAGES 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 1 47(48) 37(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) ORLANDO FL 50 X 9( 9) 37(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ORLANDO FL 64 X 2( 2) 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COCOA BEACH FL 34 2 44(46) 44(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X 6( 6) 52(58) 7(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 1( 1) 30(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) PATRICK AFB 34 2 45(47) 43(90) 2(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) PATRICK AFB 50 X 6( 6) 53(59) 7(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) PATRICK AFB 64 X 1( 1) 30(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FT PIERCE FL 34 2 42(44) 41(85) 3(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) FT PIERCE FL 50 X 4( 4) 39(43) 4(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 1( 1) 15(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) W PALM BEACH 34 2 31(33) 30(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) W PALM BEACH 50 X 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 22(24) 20(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 34 3 8(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 34 5 8(13) 3(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NAPLES FL 34 13 66(79) 3(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NAPLES FL 50 1 20(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) NAPLES FL 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 5 76(81) 4(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) FT MYERS FL 50 1 28(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) FT MYERS FL 64 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) VENICE FL 34 27 72(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 2 85(87) 4(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) VENICE FL 64 X 66(66) 6(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) TAMPA FL 34 5 89(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) TAMPA FL 50 1 67(68) 12(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) TAMPA FL 64 X 38(38) 17(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 50(52) 8(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 8(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 5( 5) 24(29) 12(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 24.5, -85.4 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 907 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON REMAINS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 85.4W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...907 MB...26.78 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Georgia coast from Altamaha Sound to the Savannah River. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Yankeetown. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 85.5 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds remain near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 907 mb (26.78 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...4-7 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida tonight and along the Georgia coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:39:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 09:23:08 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090837 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 Conventional satellite imagery shows that Leslie's cloud pattern has changed little during the past few hours. Earlier SSMIS and AMSU-B microwaves overpasses, however, indicated that Leslie's structure has become vertically tilted southeast to northwest, indicative of the previously mentioned mid-level southerly shear component. A blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB and a 0610 UTC UW-CIMSS 72 kt SATCON analysis yield an initial intensity at 70 kt. Although the undercutting shear is expected to persist, slight intensity fluctuations are possible today and tonight while Leslie moves through a marginally conducive thermodynamic environment and over warm oceanic surface temperatures. Afterward, the global models show an upper-tropospheric anticyclone developing over the SW Atlantic, between Milton and Leslie. This feature is expected to spread moderate northerly shear over the central subtropical Atlantic inhibiting ventilation aloft over the north portion of the cyclone. Consequently, weakening is expected, and Leslie is forecast to quickly lose its associated convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days. Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, 310/9 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. By mid-period, the cyclone is forecast to slow in forward speed and turn toward the north while rounding the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast. Afterward, Leslie should accelerate and turn toward the northeast in response to a major shortwave trough approaching the cyclone from the northeast. The NHC forecast is close to the previous one and is based on a compromise of the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Leslie's wind radii were adjusted based on 2354 UTC METOP-B and 0049 UTC METOP-C scatterometer passes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 21.2N 47.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

...RESILIENT LESLIE COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Oct 9 the center of Leslie was located near 21.2, -47.8 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090837 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 ...RESILIENT LESLIE COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 47.8W ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 47.8 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slight reduction in forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is anticipated today and tonight, followed by weakening through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 090837 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 166 WTNT23 KNHC 090836 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 47.8W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 47.5W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.0N 48.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 50.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.4N 50.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.6N 48.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 46.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 34.3N 36.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 35.4N 28.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 47.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 06:29:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 03:29:13 GMT

...MILTON FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... ...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING THIS AFTERNOON... As of 1:00 AM CDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 23.8, -86.0 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 914 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090548 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... ...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 86.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 360 MI...585 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 86.0 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 914 mb (26.99 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Suwannee River, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida through Thursday night. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

000
ABNT20 KNHC 090517
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force non-tropical
low pressure system located northeast of the northwestern Bahamas
continue to become better organized. Although environmental
conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional
development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could form
today or this evening while the low moves northeastward to
east-northeastward at around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast
to increase later tonight, which should limit any chances for
further development. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next couple of days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear
only marginally favorable for some limited development of this
system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands late
Thursday into Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 04:12:23 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 03:23:32 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 02:51:48 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 090242 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Milton again this evening, providing a number of center fixes, flight-level wind data, dropsonde measurements, and other valuable observations. Data from the aircraft confirmed that the hurricane had regained category 5 intensity, with maximum winds near 145 kt and the central pressure as low as 902 mb. More recent aircraft observations showed that the central pressure had risen somewhat, so the advisory intensity is adjusted slightly down, to 140 kt. This is also consistent with the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB. Center fixes from the aircraft and satellite images indicate that Milton's heading is gradually turning toward the left and the initial motion estimate is now about 055/10 kt. The system is being steered by the flow between a trough digging over the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. Milton should move northeastward on Wednesday with a slight increase in forward speed, with the center of the hurricane reaching the Florida Gulf coast in 24 hours or so. Thereafter, the system should turn east-northeastward to eastward and move over the southwestern Atlantic off the southeast U.S. coast. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and is generally a little north of the model trackers, but follows the actual model predicted cyclone center locations. This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Again, it is critical to remember that even at 24 hours out, it is still not possible to pinpoint an an exact landfall location. Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Although an expected increase in vertical wind shear should cause some weakening, Milton is expected to still be an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches shore. Also, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton reaches the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper side of the intensity model guidance. After Milton moves over the Atlantic, the global models show the system becoming embedded within a frontal zone, so the official forecast shows the system becoming extratropical by 72 hours. Milton's wind field is expected to grow considerably in size by the time the center moves over Florida. In addition, a large region of tropical storm and hurricane force winds could occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed tonight. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate as soon as possible if ordered by local officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on Wednesday. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 23.4N 86.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 26.5N 83.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 11/0000Z 28.5N 78.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 11/1200Z 29.0N 75.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 29.4N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0000Z 30.4N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/0000Z 31.5N 57.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch