Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 20:56:15 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 092055 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 83.4W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch north of the Savannah River to Edisto Beach South Carolina has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watches for the Dry Tortugas, the Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River, and for the Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach have been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch north of Edisto Beach has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening, move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening, and it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. Milton is forecast to weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). A WeatherFlow site located in Egmont Channel (XEGM) recently reported a sustained wind speed of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h). A WeatherFlow site located on the Sunshine Skyway Fishing Pier (XSKY) recently reported a sustained wind speed of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...6-9 ft Tampa Bay...6-9 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida this evening through Thursday morning and are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida and are forecast to spread across the peninsula and reach the east coast this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia and South Carolina coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes, possibly including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 498 WTNT24 KNHC 092055 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 83.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......180NE 170SE 110SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 83.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 83.9W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.0N 81.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 170SE 110SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.9N 79.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...300NE 160SE 130SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.2N 76.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 140SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.3N 73.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.4N 70.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 60SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.9N 67.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.2N 61.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 33.1N 55.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 83.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 20:35:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 21:22:56 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 199 WTNT43 KNHC 092033 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 Leslie continues to take advantage of the little time it has left under favorable environmental conditions. Although an eye is not currently seen on visible or infrared imagery, a 1611 UTC AMSR2 image shows that an eye exists on microwave imagery, and it is located underneath the middle of the central dense overcast. Subjective Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB are a unanimous T-4.5/77 kt, whereas recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have been averaging in the 78-85 kt range for the past several hours. The initial intensity is bumped up to 80 kt, using a blend of the subjective and objective estimates. Leslie's initial motion estimate is northwestward, or 310/8 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. Leslie is expected to turn northward in 24-36 h as it rounds the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge to the east. Afterward, Leslie should accelerate toward the northeast in response to a strong trough approaching the cyclone from the northwest. The guidance is a bit farther west this cycle, and the new NHC forecast has shifted west of the previous one. Saildrone data from the last several hours indicates that Leslie is over sea-surface temperatures approximately 1 to 2 degrees warmer than other data sources are indicating, and this could be the main reason why Leslie has strengthened a bit more than anticipated over the past 12 to 24 h. A bit more strengthening is forecast during the next 12 h while the vertical wind shear remains relatively low. In about 12 to 18 h, Leslie is expected to run into a wall of strong northerly shear caused by a strengthening upper-level anticyclone in between Milton and Leslie. The shear is expected to cause Leslie to rapidly weaken during the 24 to 48 h period. While it is possible that Leslie could lose most of its convection in 2 to 3 days, the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery now show several periodic bursts of convection continuing into Day 4. Leslie might also merge with a front and become extratropical in 3 to 4 days. Regardless, Leslie will be traveling over much colder water by that time, and the official forecast calls for Leslie to become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 22.2N 49.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 22.9N 49.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 23.8N 50.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 25.3N 50.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 27.2N 49.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/0600Z 29.7N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 31.9N 43.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 35.4N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/1800Z 36.5N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 274 WTNT23 KNHC 092032 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 49.0W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 49.0W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 48.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.9N 49.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.8N 50.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.3N 50.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.2N 49.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.7N 47.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.9N 43.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 60SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 35.4N 33.4W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 60SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 36.5N 25.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT WILL REACH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 9 the center of Leslie was located near 22.2, -49.0 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 092032 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 ...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER BUT WILL REACH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 49.0W ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 49.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight, followed by weakening through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 092032 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

...MILTON APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 26.9, -83.4 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 091957 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ONGOING... ...MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA... Heavy rainfall with tropical-storm force winds are spreading inland across the Florida peninsula. A recent wind gust of 68 mph (109 km/h) was recorded at a mesonet site located in Fort Myers Beach. There are also multiple tornado warnings in effect across the Florida peninsula. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. The next update will be with the full advisory package at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC). SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 83.5W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly/Camposano

Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 345 WTNT64 KNHC 091859 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 300 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... Tropical-storm-force winds are now moving onshore the west coast of Florida. There are also multiple tornado warnings in effect across the Florida peninsula. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. The next update will be at 400 PM EDT (2000 UTC). SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 83.7W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly/Blake

...MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... As of 3:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 26.6, -83.7 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 091755 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON GROWING IN SIZE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.3N 84.0W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued north of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 84.0 West. Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected this evening and tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight, cross the Florida peninsula overnight and early Thursday, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and remain at hurricane strength while it moves across the Florida peninsula through Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast while Milton moves eastward over the western Atlantic, and it is likely to become an extratropical storm by early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 250 miles (280 km), especially to the north. A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083) located about 50 miles east of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 mph (112 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 944 mb (27.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through Thursday morning and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida in a few hours, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091753
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force non-tropical
low pressure system located less than 300 miles west-southwest of
Bermuda remain disorganized. Environmental conditions are becoming
less favorable for tropical or subtropical development today while
the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward at around 15 mph.
Upper-level winds are expected to become too strong for further
development tonight or on Thursday. Additional information on this
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
late tonight or early Thursday. Afterward, environmental conditions
appear only marginally favorable for some limited development of
this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands on
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 1:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 26.2, -84.2 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 935 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Issued at 100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 091700 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... Milton is currently moving north-northeastward or 030/15 kt. A turn towards the northeast is anticipated with a slower forward speed later this evening. Tropical-storm-force winds are just offshore and now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy. The next update will be with the intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC). SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 84.2W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 16:15:29 GMT

...ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER WARNINGS... ...1200 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 12:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 26.0, -84.2 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 931 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Issued at 1200 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 091554 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1200 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER WARNINGS... ...1200 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Another position update will be provided at 100 PM EDT (1700 UTC) SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.0N 84.2W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly