5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 02:43:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 03:22:53 GMT

...LESLIE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AND COULD MAKE A RUN AT MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Oct 9 the center of Leslie was located near 22.6, -49.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100241 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 ...LESLIE NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AND COULD MAKE A RUN AT MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 49.3W ABOUT 945 MI...1515 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 49.3 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north and north-northeast with gradual acceleration is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie could briefly become a major hurricane tomorrow morning before rapid weakening begins and continues through the weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). Saildrone SD-1036 located about 60 miles (95 km) northwest of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust up to 66 mph (106 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 100241 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100241 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 49.3W AT 10/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 135SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 49.3W AT 10/0300Z AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 49.0W FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.3N 49.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.4N 50.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.0N 50.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.4N 48.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.7N 45.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 33.0N 41.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 36.0N 31.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 37.1N 21.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 49.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...MILTON BRINGING DEVASTATING RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 27.6, -82.0 with movement ENE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 1000 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 100156 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA AS MILTON CONTINUES MOVING INLAND... ...1000 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... A sustained wind of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a gust of 102 mph (165 km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport. A sustained wind of 86 mph (139 km/h) and a gust of 105 mph (169 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust of 98 mph (157 km/h) was recently reported at a NOS station at Middle Tampa Bay. A gust of 91 mph (146 km/h) was recently reported at a Citizen Weather Observer Program station in Bartow. A Flash Flood Emergency is in effect for the Tampa Bay area, including the cities of Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Clearwater. Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg has received 16.61 inches of rain so far today. The next update will be the full advisory at 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 82.3W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MILTON MAKES LANDFALL NEAR SIESTA KEY FLORIDA.... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... As of 8:30 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 27.3, -82.6 with movement ENE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 830 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 100030 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 830 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE MILTON MAKES LANDFALL NEAR SIESTA KEY FLORIDA.... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... NWS Doppler radar data indicate the eye of Hurricane Milton has made landfall near Siesta Key in Sarasota County along the west coast of Florida. A sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a gust of 97 mph (156 km/h) was recently reported at a NOAA C-MAN station in Venice. A sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a gust of 100 mph (161 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A sustained wind of 67 mph (107 km/h) and a gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway Fishing Pier. A sustained wind of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of 73 mph (117 km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport. The next update will be at 900 PM EDT (0100 UTC). SUMMARY OF 830 PM EDT...0030 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 82.6W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Papin/Brown/Mahoney/Camposano

Issued at 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 092355 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 800 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON CLOSE TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.2N 82.8W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 82.8 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall just south of the Tampa Bay region within the next hour or two, and then move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely until landfall, and Milton is expected to remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. The system is forecast to weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 96 mph (154 km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport. A C-MAN Station in Venice, Florida recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (115 km/h) with a gust to 90 mph (145 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...6-9 ft Tampa Bay...6-9 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area and will spread east-northeastward across the Florida peninsula overnight. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida and are forecast to spread across the peninsula and reach the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia and South Carolina coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes, possibly including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this evening and tonight across parts of central Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 092331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located near the Florida Gulf coast.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force non-tropical
low pressure system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
Bermuda remain disorganized. In addition, the circulation is
becoming increasingly elongated as environmental conditions become
less favorable for any tropical or subtropical development. The low
is expected to continue moving east-northeastward, passing to the
south of Bermuda tonight into Thursday. Additional information on
this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa by
early Thursday. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable for some limited development of this system
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF MILTON STARTING TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... ...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 7:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 27.1, -83.0 with movement NE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 952 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 700 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 092258 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF MILTON STARTING TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... ...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... The northern eyewall of Hurricane Milton is beginning to move onshore of the Florida gulf coast near Tampa and St. Petersburg where an Extreme Wind Warning is now in effect. Please shelter in place as these extremely dangerous hurricane-force winds overspread the region. A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International Airport. A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust of 71 mph (114 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway Fishing Pier. The next update will be the intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC). SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.1N 83.0W ABOUT 35 MI...50 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES $$ Forecaster Papin/Mahoney/Camposano

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 22:27:36 GMT

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... ...600 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 6:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 27.0, -83.3 with movement NE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 948 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 120 mph.

Issued at 600 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 092157 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 600 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... ...600 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE... Heavy rainfall continues over the central Florida peninsula with hurricane-force wind gusts beginning to occur along the Florida gulf coast. A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 66 mph (106 km/h) was recently reported at the Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg. The next update will be at 700 PM EDT (2300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 83.3W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 150 MI...250 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES $$ Forecaster Papin/Mahoney/Camposano

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 21:23:29 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 20:57:41 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 20:57:42 GMT

Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 092056 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 WSR-88D radar images from Tampa and Key West show that Milton is a sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission, where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb. Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and 105 kt. Milton's recent motion has been northeastward (035 degrees) at about 15 kt. Track model guidance continues to insist that the hurricane will slow down a bit and turn more to the right very soon, taking the center near or just south of Tampa Bay later this evening. Milton's center is then expected to cross central Florida and turn east-northeastward as it emerges over the western Atlantic. Milton is likely to be right near the threshold of a major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida this evening. Milton has grown in size today, particularly in the extent of 34- and 50-kt winds to the northwest of the center, and the northern eyewall appears most severe at the moment due to southwesterly shear. As a result, significant wind impacts are likely to occur north of the center, as well as to the south, regardless of the exact intensity at landfall. There will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location, however, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm. Earlier scatterometer data suggested that Milton is already beginning to interact with a frontal boundary, and global model guidance suggests that the cyclone will become extratropical in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic. This is reflected in the new NHC forecast. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. Near the coast the surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will rise rapidly as the eye approaches, and strong onshore winds on the backside of the hurricane will also cause a rapid rise in water as the center makes landfall. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula and to portions of the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area tonight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an interior room, away from windows, as the core of the hurricane moves across the central Florida Peninsula. 3. The risk of strong tornadoes will continue into the evening hours across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula. Be prepared to take immediate shelter in an interior room if a Tornado Warning is issued for your area. 4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 26.9N 83.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 28.0N 81.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/1800Z 28.9N 79.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 11/0600Z 29.2N 76.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/1800Z 29.3N 73.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0600Z 29.4N 70.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1800Z 29.9N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1800Z 31.2N 61.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1800Z 33.1N 55.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 092056 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 23 8(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) WAYCROSS GA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 38 12(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) JACKSONVILLE 34 18 8(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GAINESVILLE FL 34 89 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) DAYTONA BEACH 34 94 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 4 17(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 50 31 7(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 50 48 33(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ORLANDO FL 64 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 95 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 16 67(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) COCOA BEACH FL 64 1 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) PATRICK AFB 34 96 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 17 66(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) PATRICK AFB 64 1 27(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) FT PIERCE FL 34 86 8(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) FT PIERCE FL 50 6 17(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FT PIERCE FL 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 69 5(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) W PALM BEACH 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 52 2(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MIAMI FL 34 12 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 64 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 64 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 16 20(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG