Issued at 802 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 11:59:03 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 11:53:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 09:30:01 GMT

Issued at 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101152 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 800 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...CENTER OF MILTON PULLING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE SPACE COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 79.5W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warnings south of Sebastian Inlet and north of the Flagler/Volusia County Line have been changed to Tropical Storm Warnings. The Storm Surge Warning along the Florida west coast has been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the Palm Beach/Martin County Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida east coast from Sebastian Inlet northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida east coast south of Sebastian Inlet to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line * Lake Okeechobee * North of the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the east tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move away from Florida and pass to the north of the Bahamas today. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, but Milton is forecast to become a powerful extratropical low tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station in Marineland. A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h) was recently reported at the Cocoa-Patrick Air Force Base. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across portions of the east-central to northeast Florida coast through this morning. This rainfall will continue to bring the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are occurring within the hurricane warning area in Florida. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and the Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg/Hagen

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101110
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located off the east coast of central Florida.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave that has now emerged off of the west coast of Africa
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginal for limited development of
this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. By
Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable,
and further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, localized areas of heavy rain are possible across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands late Thursday through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 10:11:13 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 09:15:46 GMT

Issued at 510 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 /410 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024/

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 08:45:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 09:24:00 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 100843 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024 The satellite presentation of Leslie has degraded since the previous advisory. Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the eye feature has filled, deep convection have shifted to the southern side of the circulation, and the outflow appears to be impinged in the northwest quadrant. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates have plateaued, with final-T numbers coming down. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 90 kt, in agreement with the latest TAFB and SAB estimates. The window for intensification seems to have closed. Vertical wind shear appears to be strengthening significantly over Leslie. Global models insist the strong upper-level winds will strip away deep convection and force in the surrounding dry mid-level humidities into the circulation quickly. Given the relatively small size of the hurricane, rapid weakening is expected over the next few days. Leslie is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by Sunday and open into a trough by early next week. Leslie is moving northwestward at about 5 kt. This motion should continue through today as Leslie moves around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. On Friday, the hurricane should speed up and turn to the north and north-northeast, followed by a turn northeastward and east-northeastward as it accelerates further over the weekend. There have been only minor changes to the latest NHC track forecast, which lies essentially on top of the previous prediction and between the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 22.9N 49.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 23.6N 50.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 24.9N 50.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 27.0N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 29.5N 47.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 32.0N 43.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 34.2N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/0600Z 36.5N 28.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 100842 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Milton moved quickly across central Florida overnight, producing significant flooding and damaging winds near its path. The center of the hurricane is now exiting the state near Cape Canaveral, and the worst conditions have shifted to east-central and northeastern Florida. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt based on Doppler radar velocity data and surface observations, with the strongest winds likely occurring just offshore of east-central Florida. Milton is expected to remain a hurricane a little longer, but the models are in good agreement that it will develop frontal characteristics by tonight, and therefore, the official forecast shows the system becoming extratropical in 24 hours. The extratropical low is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate in about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the GFS model, which typically performs better than the standard hurricane models for transitioning systems. The hurricane is moving quickly northeastward between a trough just to its west and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. A turn to the east is expected to occur soon as the flow becomes more zonal, taking the system to the north of the Bahamas later today and south of Bermuda on Saturday. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest models. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the coast from east-central Florida northward to southern Georgia, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. 2. Damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue for a few more hours in east-central and northeastern Florida. Residents are urged to remain in an interior room and away from windows. 3. Heavy rainfall across the central to northern Florida Peninsula through this morning continues to bring the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 28.5N 80.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 29.3N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 29.6N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 11/1800Z 29.6N 70.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/0600Z 29.7N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1800Z 29.9N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0600Z 30.6N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 100842 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

...LESLIE LIKELY PEAKED IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Oct 10 the center of Leslie was located near 22.9, -49.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 100841 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024 ...LESLIE LIKELY PEAKED IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 49.8W ABOUT 1705 MI...2740 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 49.8 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn to the north and north-northeast with an increase in forward motion is forecast on Friday, followed by a turn to the northeast and east-northeast over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is forecast to weaken during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 100841 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 49.8W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 90SE 135SW 135NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 49.8W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 49.6W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.6N 50.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 50.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.0N 49.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.5N 47.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.0N 43.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 34.2N 38.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 36.5N 28.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 49.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 100841 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...MILTON MOVING OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...STILL PRODUCING DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 80.5W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued for the west coast of Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning for all of the Florida Keys and from the Palm Beach-Broward County Line southward have been discontinued. The Hurricane Watch for Martin County and Lake Okeechobee have been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Bonita Beach to Flamingo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Middle of Longboat Key, including Charlotte Harbor * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Broward/Palm Beach County Line * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 80.5 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the east tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move away from Florida and to the north of the Bahamas today. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, but Milton is forecast to become a powerful extratropical low tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 75 mph (121 km/h) and a gust to 83 mph (134 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station in Marineland. A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station on South Hutchinson Island. A sustained wind of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a gust of 87 mph (140 km/h) was recently reported at Daytona Beach International Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected across portions of the east-central to northeast Florida coast through this morning. This rainfall will continue to bring the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area in Florida. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and the Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Mahoney

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 100841 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 32 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GAINESVILLE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 64 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT LAUDERDALE 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MIAMI FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 29 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 100840 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 80.5W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......180NE 170SE 110SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 480SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 80.5W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 81.3W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.3N 78.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 170SE 120SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.6N 74.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 150SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.6N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 150SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.7N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...155NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.9N 63.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.6N 60.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 80.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 the center of Milton was located near 29.1, -78.5 with movement ENE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 100756 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...STRONG WINDS SPREAD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS THE CENTER OF MILTON NEARS CAPE CANAVERAL... ...400 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... A sustained wind of 83 mph (134 km/h) and a gust to 92 mph (148 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station in Marineland. A sustained wind of 67 mph (108 km/h) and a gust to 73 mph (117 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station on South Hutchinson Island. A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 83 mph (133 km/h) was recently reported at buoy 41069 near Ponce de Leon Inlet. A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 84 mph (135 km/h) was recently reported at Daytona Beach International Airport. This will be the final hourly position update for Milton since the center of the hurricane is moving offshore of the east coast of Florida. The next full forecast advisory for Milton will be at 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC). SUMMARY OF 400 AM EDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 80.7W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM NW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...135 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney