Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 102031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Thu Oct 10 2024 ...LESLIE RAPIDLY WEAKENS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.9N 50.9W ABOUT 1710 MI...2750 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 50.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the northeast on Friday, with an east-northeastward turn expected over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast to continue during the next day or so, and Leslie is forecast to lose tropical characteristics in a few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 102031 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 243 WTNT23 KNHC 102030 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 50.9W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 35NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 50.9W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 50.8W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.9N 51.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.0N 50.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 29.6N 47.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.5N 43.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 34.8N 38.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.1N 32.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 36.0N 23.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 50.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

000
ABNT20 KNHC 101742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton, located off the east coast of central
Florida.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear marginal for limited development of this system
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic and the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. By
Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable,
and further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, localized areas of heavy rain are possible across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 17:37:25 GMT

...MILTON BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... As of 2:00 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 the center of Milton was located near 29.3, -77.5 with movement ENE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101730 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 22A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...MILTON BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 77.5W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued south of the Flagler/Volusia County Line. The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the extreme northwestern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Flagler/Volusia County Line northward to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 77.5 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the east is expected later today, with that motion forecast to continue over the western Atlantic for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move away from the east coast of Florida and pass north of the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon. Satellite-derived wind data indicate Milton has become a powerful post-tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) northwest of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts around an inch are possible along the northeastern coast of Florida through today. In the wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of considerable urban flooding will linger through this morning across east central Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing and forecast throughout central Florida. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within the tropical storm warning areas in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina for the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 15:46:06 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 15:17:27 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 101443 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Milton is quickly taking on extratropical characteristics, with convection more closely aligned along a warm frontal boundary to the northeast than the center itself. Due to the structure evolution, it is likely that the strongest winds are located to the northwest of the center. The intensity is lowered to 70 kt, based on continuity from the previous forecast. Scatterometer passes are expected in a few hours and should allow us to get a better handle on Milton's intensity and structure. The hurricane has turned east-northeastward (065/17 kt). Milton is located within the base of a deep-layer trough located over the western Atlantic, and this feature should steer the storm eastward later today, with that motion continuing for the next 3 days. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous prediction to follow the recent trends in the model guidance. Global model fields show low-level thickness contours packing closer together on the northwest side through the day, and it is therefore likely that Milton will complete extratropical transition by this afternoon or evening. Milton will still be a powerful post-tropical cyclone, but its maximum winds are expected to gradually decrease during the next few days. The post-tropical low is expected to become diffuse and will likely dissipate in about 4 days. Key Messages: 1. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the east coast of Florida and southern coast of Georgia. Storm surge inundation will continue in these areas through this afternoon. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along portions of the southeast U.S. coast through this afternoon and over the extreme northwestern Bahamas through this evening. 3. In the wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of considerable urban flooding will linger through this afternoon across east central Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing and forecast throughout central Florida. 4. Use caution after the storm as deadly hazards remain including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from doors, windows, and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. If you are cleaning up storm damage, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 29.1N 78.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 29.6N 75.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/1200Z 29.9N 70.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0000Z 30.0N 64.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1200Z 29.9N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/0000Z 30.4N 57.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/1200Z 31.4N 53.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... As of 11:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 the center of Milton was located near 29.1, -78.5 with movement ENE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 101442 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 78.5W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Sebastian Inlet and for Lake Okeechobee. The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bimini. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island and the Abacos A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 78.5 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the east is expected later today, with that motion forecast to continue over the western Atlantic for the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move away from the east coast of Florida and pass north of the northwestern Bahamas today. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical storm this afternoon or evening, with gradual weakening expected during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 44 mph (71 km/h) were recently reported at Settlement Point on Grand Bahama Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts around an inch are possible along the northeastern coast of Florida through today. In the wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of considerable urban flooding will linger through this morning across east central Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing and forecast throughout central Florida. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions continue within the tropical storm warning areas in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and the extreme northwestern Bahamas. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 101442 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSONVILLE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 101441 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 78.5W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT.......270NE 180SE 120SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 78.5W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 79.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.6N 75.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...330NE 160SE 150SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.9N 70.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 180SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.0N 64.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...220NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.9N 60.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.4N 57.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.4N 53.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 78.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 14:35:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 15:22:55 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 101433 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024 The satellite presentation of Leslie has degraded since the previous advisory. Strong northerly wind shear has been pushing most of the convection to the south side of the low-level center. The most recent GOES-16 images suggest that the low-level center is likely just barely underneath the northern edge of the central dense overcast. The latest subjective current intensity values from TAFB and SAB are still 90 kt due to continuity constraints, but the latest ADT and AiDT intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS have decreased down to 72 kt. The intensity is set to 80 kt, as a blend of all the estimates. Leslie has already entered the strong northerly shear zone that has been advertised in previous discussions, and the guidance indicates that the shear will continue to increase to over 40 kt over the next 12 to 24 h. Shear that strong, combined with the dry environment that Leslie is embedded within, is likely to lead to steady to rapid weakening. The NHC forecast calls for Leslie to weaken by 35 kt over the next 36 h, in good agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus, HAFS models, and the intensity consensus. After that, the models hold on to Leslie, and there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the timing of when Leslie will become post-tropical. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery indicate that puffs of convection could continue through the weekend. The cyclone is also likely to interact with an approaching frontal system by Sunday. The NHC forecast continues to call for Leslie to become post-tropical by day 3. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/6 kt. Model guidance is in excellent agreement that a northward turn will happen very soon as Leslie moves around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic. On Friday and Friday night, the hurricane should speed up and turn to the northeast, followed by an east-northeastward turn as it accelerates further over the weekend. The latest NHC track forecast is slightly west of the previous one during the first 48 hours of the forecast, and nearly identical to the previous forecast thereafter. The official forecast is in best agreement with the TVCA consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 23.2N 50.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 24.0N 50.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 25.7N 50.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 28.1N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 30.8N 45.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 33.3N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 35.2N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 14/1200Z 36.6N 25.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

...LESLIE STARTING TO WEAKEN... As of 11:00 AM AST Thu Oct 10 the center of Leslie was located near 23.2, -50.4 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 101432 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 10 2024 ...LESLIE STARTING TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 50.4W ABOUT 1715 MI...2765 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 50.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected today, followed by a turn to the northeast on Friday, with an east-northeastward turn expected over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast over the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 101432 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN