...LESLIE DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 3:00 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 the center of Leslie was located near 33.3, -43.4 with movement NE at 31 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 121440 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Remnants Of Leslie Advisory Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024 ...LESLIE DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.3N 43.4W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Leslie were located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 43.4 West. The remnants are moving quickly toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h). A gradual turn toward the east at a fast forward speed is expected starting tonight, with a continued eastward motion expected into early next week. The remnants of Leslie are expected to move over or very near the Azores Sunday and early Monday. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Leslie has degenerated into a trough, but maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. The remnants of Leslie are expected to gradually weaken during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 121439 TCMAT3 REMNANTS OF LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 43.4W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 27 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 210SE 210SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 43.4W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 44.9W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 43.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121131
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
The circulation associated with an area of low pressure located a
couple of hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands appears to
have become slightly better defined this morning. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity is only marginally
well-organized, and environmental conditions are expected to become
less conducive for further development later today. A short-lived
tropical depression could still form at any time today while the
system moves generally westward. After that time, the system is
forecast to continue moving westward across the central tropical
Atlantic, but further development is not anticipated through at
least the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2024 08:40:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2024 09:22:51 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 120839 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024 Leslie has held steady through the night. The storm has maintained a small burst of deep convection near the low-level center, with cold cloud top temperatures of less than -80 degrees C. While the satellite intensity estimates have trended downward, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt in deference to the earlier scatterometer data. The storm is accelerating to the northeast at 21 kt in the flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough over the northwestern Atlantic. On Sunday, Leslie should turn east-northeastward to eastward and continue this motion through the remainder of the forecast period. Model guidance has shifted northward with a slight increase in forward speed this advisory cycle. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged northward and now lies between the previous prediction and on the southern side of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. Leslie, or its remnants, is now expected to move near or over the Azores late Sunday through early Monday. Leslie has a few more hours in a marginal environmental. Later today, deep-layer vertical wind shear is forecast to steadily increase and the storm is passing over the 26 degree C isotherm towards cooler waters. Global models suggest Leslie will lose its deep convection and merge with a frontal system in about a day. The official forecast now reflects the timing of this transition. It should be noted that while the models show a closed low pressure area through 72 h, the circulation could degenerate into an open trough before then due to the fast forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 31.3N 45.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 33.8N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 36.5N 36.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 13/1800Z 37.6N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0600Z 37.7N 25.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/1800Z 37.1N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0600Z 37.1N 16.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 120837 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

...LESLIE RACING NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Oct 12 the center of Leslie was located near 31.3, -45.9 with movement NE at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 120836 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Sat Oct 12 2024 ...LESLIE RACING NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 45.9W ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Leslie. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 45.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h) and a northeastward to eastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie is expected to pass near or over the Azores late Sunday or Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie is likely to gradually weaken and become an extratropical cyclone tonight or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 120835 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 45.9W AT 12/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 120SE 120SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 45.9W AT 12/0900Z AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 47.1W FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.8N 42.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 36.5N 36.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 37.6N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 37.7N 25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 37.1N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 37.1N 16.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 45.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

000
ABNT20 KNHC 120516
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94):
A low pressure system located a couple of hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms on its east side. If the circulation of the system
becomes better defined and the showers and thunderstorms persist,
the low could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm
later this morning while it moves west-northwestward. Strong
upper-level winds and dry air should end the chances of development
by tonight or Sunday. Heavy rains and gusty winds are occurring
over the western Cabo Verde Islands, and those conditions are
expected to continue for a few more hours.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2024 02:38:16 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2024 03:22:55 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 120236 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 Convection associated with Leslie has been increasing during the past several hours as the cyclone moves into an area of temporarily decreased shear. A recent ASCAT overpass showed winds of 40-45 kt in the southeastern quadrant, and based on these data the initial intensity is held at 45 kt. The scatterometer data also suggest that the circulation is becoming somewhat distorted due to the rapid northeastward motion. The initial motion is now 035/19 kt. The cyclone is accelerating northeastward as it moves into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow to the east of a deep-layer trough over the northwestern Atlantic. This general motion should continue for 24 h or so. After that, Leslie or its remnants should turn eastward and east-southeastward on the southwestern side of another deep-layer trough located over the northeastern Atlantic, with this motion continuing until the system dissipates. There are no significant changes in the track guidance since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar to the previous track. Shear over Leslie should remain relatively low for the next 12-18 h, allowing the current convection to continue and the system to maintain tropical cyclone status during that time. The global models have come into good agreement that Leslie will merge with a frontal system to become extratropical between 24-36 h, and thus the intensity forecast status has been adjusted accordingly. The extratropical cyclone should subsequently weaken and be absorbed into the larger system over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h. It should be noted that while the models show a closed low pressure area through 72 h, the circulation could degenerate into an open trough before then due to the fast forward speed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 29.3N 47.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 31.8N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 34.8N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 36.7N 33.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0000Z 37.1N 28.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/1200Z 36.0N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 15/0000Z 35.3N 19.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 120235 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...LESLIE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Oct 11 the center of Leslie was located near 29.3, -47.9 with movement NE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 459 WTNT33 KNHC 120235 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 ...LESLIE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 47.9W ABOUT 1340 MI...2155 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Leslie. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 47.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h) and a northeastward to east-northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie is expected to pass south of the Azores late Sunday or Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Saturday. After that, Leslie is likely to weaken and become extratropical Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) mainly to the southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 458 WTNT23 KNHC 120235 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 47.9W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 47.9W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 48.8W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.8N 45.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.8N 39.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 36.7N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 80SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 37.1N 28.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 80SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 36.0N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.3N 19.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 47.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 112345 CCA
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Oct 11 2024


Corrected to add probabilities

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean.

Near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with an
area of low pressure just west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some
development is possible tonight, and a short-lived tropical storm
could form while the system moves westward or west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph away from the Cabo Verde Islands. On Saturday,
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and
further development appears unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are likely to
continue over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 11 Oct 2024 20:34:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 11 Oct 2024 21:23:05 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 112033 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Fri Oct 11 2024 Leslie continues to be a sheared tropical cyclone, struggling to produce convection. The center of the system continues to be exposed at it is accelerating to the northeast within an unfavorable environment. The subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have come down some between 30-45 kt with the final CI value from TAFB, T3.0/45 kt. This is in good agreement with the satellite derived winds from the scatterometer pass earlier today. Thus, will keep the intensity steady at 45 kt with this advisory. The storm will remain in a hostile environment with strong vertical wind shear and dry air inhibiting convection over the system for the next day or so. In about 18-24 h the shear is forecast to decrease for a short-period of time, and model simulated satellite suggest that Leslie will be able to regain some convection near the center again, which will prolong the post-tropical transition. However, by 36 hours the shear will increase and Leslie will be crossing into cooler sea surface temperatures. This will all be occuring as a frontal boundary approaches Leslie,and the system will begin to acquire some extratropical characteristics, eventually becoming post tropical at that time. The NHC intensity forecast calls for the system to remain steady with some gradual weakening as the system becomes post-tropical in 36 h. Leslie has been accelerating towards the northeast, or 035/15 kt, between the flow of an approaching trough to the west and the subtropical ridge to the east. Leslie will continue to move northeastward then east-northeastward with an increase in forward speed through the weekend. The NHC forecast was nudged slightly poleward in the near term, with a slightly faster rate of forward motion, and lies near the simple consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 27.6N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 30.0N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 33.5N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 36.0N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 13/1800Z 37.2N 30.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 14/0600Z 36.7N 25.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 14/1800Z 36.0N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly