000
ABNT20 KNHC 161728
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Recent satellite surface wind data showed the circulation associated
with a disturbance over the tropical Atlantic Ocean has become less
defined since yesterday. The trough of low pressure continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and
environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development during the latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and
Virgin Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week and into the
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

000
ABNT20 KNHC 161147
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward,
and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development during the latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and
Virgin Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

000
ABNT20 KNHC 160500
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A broad area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward,
and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development during the latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and
Virgin Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABNT20 KNHC 152322
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and
environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual
development by the middle to latter part of this week. A tropical
depression could form as the system approaches or moves near the
Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151740
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for gradual development by the middle
to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as
the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves
near the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms in the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible if the system stays over water while it
moves slowly northwestward towards Central America. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of
Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 151151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions
could become more conducive for gradual development by the middle
to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as
the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves
near the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter if the system stays over
water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern
Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

000
ABNT20 KNHC 150503
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located over the central
tropical Atlantic is producing occasional showers and
thunderstorms. This system remains embedded in a dry air
environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of
days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable
for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A
tropical depression could form as the system begins moving
west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands
late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter if the system stays over
water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern
Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 142316
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located over the central
tropical Atlantic is producing occasional showers and
thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in a dry air
environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of
days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
and environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable
for gradual development by the middle to latter part of this week. A
tropical depression could form as the system begins moving
west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward Islands
late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure could develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
gradual development is possible thereafter if the system stays over
water while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern
Central America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall
is possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABNT20 KNHC 141726
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located roughly midway between
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing limited
shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is currently embedded
in a dry air environment, and development is unlikely over the next
couple of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally
westward toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could
become more favorable for gradual development by the middle to
latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the
system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near
the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. Some
development is possible thereafter if the system stays over water
while it moves slowly west-northwestward towards northern Central
America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of Central America later this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

603
ABNT20 KNHC 141137
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in a
dry environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of
days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could become more
favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of
this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward
Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABNT20 KNHC 140504
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing minimal showers and
thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable
environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple
of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
to west-southwestward, and environmental conditions could become
more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part
of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward
Islands by the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 132322
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is struggling to produce showers and
thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable
environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple
of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
to west-southwestward, and environmental conditions could become
more favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part
of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward
Islands by the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131754
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited with a well-defined
area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. This system is currently embedded in an unfavorable
environment and development is not anticipated over the next couple
of days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
to west-southwestward, and environmental conditions could become
more favorable for additional development by the mid to latter part
of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward
Islands by the end of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Konarik

000
ABNT20 KNHC 131151
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms have diminished again in associated with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands. While the system is currently embedded in an
environment that is not favorable for development over the next
couple of days, the system is forecast to move generally westward to
west-southwestward across the tropical Atlantic, where environmental
conditions could become more favorable for gradual development in
the central Tropical Atlantic by the mid to latter part of this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 130503
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 13 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands have
have increased some during the past several hours. However, the
low is moving into an environment that is less conducive for
development, and therefore during the next few days the chance of
tropical cyclone formation appears to be decreasing. This system
is forecast to move westward or west-southwestward across the
tropical Atlantic, and it may encounter conditions more conducive
for development over the western tropical Atlantic by the middle of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 122331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands have
diminished during the past 24 hours. The low is moving into an
environment that is less conducive for development, and therefore
the chance of tropical cyclone formation appears to be decreasing.
This system is forecast to move westward or west-southwestward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic through much of
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 12 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on the
remnants of Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands have not
gotten any better organized since yesterday. The low is moving
into an environment that is less conducive for development, and
therefore the chance of tropical cyclone formation appears to be
decreasing. This system is forecast to move westward or
west-southwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic
through much of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2024 14:43:39 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Oct 2024 15:22:36 GMT

Issued at 300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 121442 TCDAT3 Remnants Of Leslie Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 300 PM GMT Sat Oct 12 2024 ASCAT-B data valid near 1300 UTC indicated that Leslie's fast forward motion has caused it to open into a trough. Therefore, this will be the last NHC advisory on Leslie. The ASCAT data indicated that winds of 40-45 kt are still present on the east side of Leslie's remnants, where it continues to produce limited deep convection. A mid-latitude frontal system is nearing the remnants of Leslie, and the two systems are expected to merge within the next 12 h or so, marking Leslie's full transition to a post-tropical cyclone. It is possible that Leslie will redevelop a closed circulation as a non-tropical low at that point. The cyclone is expected to turn eastward on Sunday, bringing it very near or over the Azores late Sunday and through early Monday. By Monday afternoon, Leslie's center is expected to become poorly defined again as it interacts with another weaker mid-latitude cyclone to the east of the Azores. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 33.3N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...REMNANTS OF LESLIE 12H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 121441 PWSAT3 REMNANTS OF LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC SAT OCT 12 2024 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF LESLIE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS ...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY