000
ABNT20 KNHC 181717
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located over the western Atlantic several hundred
miles south of Atlantic Canada.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 14:50:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 15:23:03 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 841 WTNT45 KNHC 181448 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 After struggling to produce a lot of deep central convection over the past 24 hours, Ernesto resembles more of a typical tropical cyclone this morning, as convection continues to burst and wrap around the center. There have also been hints of a cloud-filled eye feature showing up on visible satellite imagery. However, subjective and objective intensity estimates have not yet responded to the modest improvement in Ernesto's structure on satellite, and the initial intensity will remain just under hurricane intensity at 60 kt this advisory. Ernesto has about a 12-18 h window to intensify back into a hurricane while the shear remains low, and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are between 27-28 C before the cyclone reaches the north wall of the Gulf Stream. After Ernesto crosses this feature, the SSTs sharply decrease and shear markedly increases, both which should initiate extratropical transition. This process should be complete in about 48 h with the cyclone opening up into a trough as it is absorbed by another extratropical cyclone beyond 72 h. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update from the previous cycle, in good agreement with the intensity consensus guidance. The tropical cyclone is beginning to accelerate north-northeastward, estimated at 020/14 kt. There is little change in the forecast track thinking, with a large mid-latitude trough moving into the U.S. East Coast that, in combination with a large subtropical ridge to the southeast, is expected to cause Ernesto to increase in forward speed along with a turn more northeastward over the next couple of days. On this track, Ernesto should make its closest approach to Newfoundland just to the southeast early Tuesday morning, with the bulk of the cyclone's wind field staying offshore of the Canadian Provence. After post-tropical transition, the cyclone is expected to turn east-northeastward until its absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone. The track guidance this cycle was a bit slower and touch further west early on, but ultimately the latest NHC track forecast ends up very close to the prior one after 24 h. Key Messages: 1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 36.1N 62.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 38.0N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 41.1N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 44.6N 53.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0000Z 50.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1200Z 52.1N 23.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 002 FONT15 KNHC 181446 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 58(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 30(30) 11(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 24(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...ERNESTO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TODAY... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 36.1, -62.5 with movement NNE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 085 WTNT35 KNHC 181445 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...ERNESTO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN TODAY... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 62.5W ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 880 MI...1410 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 36.1 North, longitude 62.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) and some increase in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible today and Ernesto is forecast to regain hurricane status. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical after it passes by southeastern Newfoundland by Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 181442 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 62.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 110SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 180SW 230NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 62.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 38.0N 61.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 110SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.1N 58.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.6N 53.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 170SE 130SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 48.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 170SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.5N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 170SE 160SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.1N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 62.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 181129
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located over the western Atlantic several hundred
miles south of Atlantic Canada.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 09:10:21 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 09:23:04 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180855 CCA TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 27...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 Corrected text of second key message. Ernesto's cloud pattern hasn't changed much overnight, and lacks a well-defined eye feature. Deep convection has been trying to wrap around the eastern portion of the circulation, giving the system a fairly symmetric overall appearance. The current intensity estimate is held at 60 kt which is in good agreement with the latest objective, AID, estimates from UW-CIMSS. Subjective Dvorak satellite estimates are somewhat lower. Unfortunately the most recent scatterometer overpasses missed most of the circulation. The tropical cyclone continues on a rather slow north-northeastward heading, with an initial motion estimate of 025/8 kt. The steering flow on the east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough approaching the U.S. east coast should cause an increase in forward speed during the next day or so along with a turn toward the northeast. In 2-3 days, Ernesto is likely to turn toward the east-northeast with additional acceleration as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic. The track guidance models remain in good agreement, and little changes to the previous NHC track forecast were required. Ernesto is still over warm waters, and should remain over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 24 hours or so. Also, vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low today with upper-level divergence diagnosed over the area by the SHIPS model diagnostics. These environmental factors favor a short period of restrengthening today, and this reflected in the official forecast. In 36-48 hours, the cyclone will encounter much cooler waters and this should cause weakening. Simulated IR satellite imagery from the global models show an increasingly asymmetric cloud structure by the time the system passes near Newfoundland, and the official forecast indicates post-tropical transition by 48 hours. Ernesto is predicted to open up and become a large trough over the northeastern Atlantic by 96 hours. Key Messages: 1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 2. Ernesto could bring wind and wave impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 34.6N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 36.4N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 39.4N 60.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 42.9N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0600Z 51.0N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

...ERNESTO COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME TODAY... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 34.6, -63.0 with movement NNE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180843 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...ERNESTO COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME TODAY... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.6N 63.0W ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 34.6 North, longitude 63.0 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and some increase in forward speed is forecast later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-intensification is possible later today, and Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 180843 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 36(36) 23(59) X(59) X(59) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20) X(20) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 34(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BERMUDA 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 180842 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 63.0W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 120SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 63.0W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.2N 63.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 36.4N 62.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 180SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.4N 60.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.9N 56.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.4N 50.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 170SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 51.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 190SE 170SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 63.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 05:48:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 03:22:57 GMT

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... As of 2:00 AM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 34.2, -63.1 with movement NNE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 200 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 180548 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ernesto Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 200 AM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.2N 63.1W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. A watch may be required for a portion of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 34.2 North, longitude 63.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and some increase in forward speed is forecast to begin later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will continue moving away from Bermuda today and pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Some re-intensification is possible later today or tonight, and Ernesto could regain hurricane status. The cyclone will likely become post-tropical near southeastern Newfoundland by Monday night or Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue on Bermuda for the next few hours. STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is still possible on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches or 25 to 50 mm of rainfall across Bermuda, with storm total amounts of 7 to 9 inches (175 to 225 mm). This rainfall will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding to the island. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada today. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely in these areas during the next couple of days. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

214
ABNT20 KNHC 180544
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ernesto, located northeast of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 02:40:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 03:22:57 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 757 WTNT45 KNHC 180238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Sat Aug 17 2024 Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda continue to show limited convection associated with Ernesto, with the strongest convection in a poorly-defined eyewall in the northern semicircle. This is likely due to a tongue of dry air wrapping around the system from the northwest into the central core. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little more since the last advisory, and based on this the initial intensity is lowered to 60 kt. The initial motion is 030/7 kt. This slow motion should continue for the next 6-12 h as a mid-latitude shortwave ridge passes to the north of Ernesto. After that, southwesterly flow on the east side of a mid-latitude trough moving through the eastern United States should cause the cyclone to accelerate to the north-northeast, northeast, and eventually east-northeast. This motion should bring the center just southeast of Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night, with the system moving into the open north Atlantic thereafter. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track. Little change in strength is expected tonight while Ernesto tries to mix out the dry air tongue. After that, upper-level divergence is forecast to increase while the cyclone is still over relatively warm water. This could allow some modest re-intensification as show by the dynamical models, and this remains reflected in the intensity forecast. After 36 h, the cyclone should weaken as it moves over colder water and begins extratropical transition. Transition should be complete by 60 h, and and the post-tropical low is expected to degenerate to a trough over the northeastern Atlantic between 72-96 h. Key Messages: 1. Ernesto is still moving slowly, and its impacts on Bermuda are not quite over. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and battering waves should continue for a few more hours. The heavy rains will likely result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially in low-lying areas on the island. 2. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane are expected to affect the area through early next week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 3. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday and Monday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 33.9N 63.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 35.3N 62.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 37.9N 61.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 41.3N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 44.7N 53.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/0000Z 50.4N 36.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven