Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 070 WTNT45 KNHC 190844 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 Satellite imagery shows that Ernesto's eye is irregularly-shaped, with fairly cold convective cloud tops over the northern portion of the circulation. The southwestern part of the high cloud canopy is beginning to become slightly blunted, which suggests some southwesterly shear is beginning to affect the system. The various objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS indicate that, a couple of hours ago, the hurricane strengthened a little more, but recently the overall cloud pattern appears to have become a little less organized. This suggests that Ernesto has stopped strengthening, and the current intensity estimate is set at 75 kt which is in general agreement with subjective Dvorak T-numbers. Center fixes indicate a gradual increase in forward speed overnight and the initial motion estimate is 030/18 kt. Ernesto is expected to accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of a large deep-layer trough near the U.S. east coast for the next 24 hours or so. This motion should bring the center of the cyclone near southeastern Newfoundland tonight or early Tuesday. Based on the NHC forecast, most of the stronger winds in the system's circulation are expected to stay offshore of Newfoundland. Thereafter, a faster east-northeastward motion over the North Atlantic is forecast while the cyclone becomes fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. In 2-3 days, Ernesto is likely to open up into a trough while merging with a large extratropical low to the south of Iceland. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical model consensus and is just slightly to the north of the previous NHC prediction. Ernesto will be traversing significantly cooler waters later today and will be impacted by increasing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear during the next day or two. Therefore, a weakening trend should begin by tonight or earlier. The official intensity forecast is quite similar to the latest Decay-SHIPS numerical guidance. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest that the system will become post-tropical within the next day or so. Key Messages: 1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane will continue to affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 40.2N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 42.7N 57.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 46.3N 51.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0600Z 50.8N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/1800Z 53.0N 19.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 08:45:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 09:23:08 GMT

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Aug 19 the center of Ernesto was located near 40.2, -60.5 with movement NNE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190843 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 60.5W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 60.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected today and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland tonight and early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast today, and a weakening trend is expected to begin tonight. Ernesto is expected to lose tropical characteristics during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to continue in these areas during the next couple of days. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 190843 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 49(49) 40(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X 3( 3) 38(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 1 66(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 4 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 849 WTNT25 KNHC 190841 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0900 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 60.5W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 240SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 60.5W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 61.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.7N 57.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.3N 51.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 150SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.0N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 170SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 50.8N 30.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 53.0N 19.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 170SE 130SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 60.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
ABNT20 KNHC 190522
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles
south of Atlantic Canada.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 02:37:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 03:22:56 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 213 WTNT45 KNHC 190234 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 Ernesto continues to have a good structure this evening with a partly cloud-filled eye surrounded by bands of convection, although the convective cloud tops are not quite as cold as they were 6 h ago. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now near 65 kt, while various objective estimates are now near 75 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 70 kt based on a blend of these data. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 6-12 h before Ernesto moves north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream. After that, the system should quickly decay as it moves over colder water and encounters increasing southwesterly shear. The cyclone should become an extratropical low by 36 h as it passes south of southeastern Newfoundland, and by 72 h it should be absorbed into a larger non-tropical low developing south of Iceland. The new intensity forecast is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance for the first 12 h, and after that lies near the intensity consensus. The initial motion is now 030/17 kt. A northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the next 24-36 h as Ernesto becomes caught up in the flow between a large deep-layer trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge centered to the hurricane's southeast. This motion should bring the center south of southeastern Newfoundland late Monday night or early Tuesday morning, with most of the wind field staying offshore. A more east-northeastward motion is expected thereafter before the cyclone becomes absorbed by the aforementioned larger extratropical cyclone. The tightly clustered track guidance has shifted a little to the north since the last advisory, so the new track forecast is a little north of the previous track. Key Messages: 1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane will continue to affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 38.5N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 40.9N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 44.3N 54.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 47.4N 46.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/0000Z 50.0N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/1200Z 52.5N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 190233 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X 2( 2) 69(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 24(24) 12(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 12 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 38.5, -61.4 with movement NNE at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 190233 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.5N 61.4W ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 61.4 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion with some increase in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast and an additional increase in forward speed are expected on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. After that, Ernesto should weaken, and the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to continue in these areas during the next couple of days. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 190233 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 61.4W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 210SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 61.4W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 62.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 40.9N 59.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.3N 54.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 70SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 130SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.4N 46.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.0N 35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.5N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 170SE 130SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 61.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 182344
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Ernesto, located over the western Atlantic
several hundred miles south of Atlantic Canada.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 20:44:49 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 18 Aug 2024 21:23:01 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 182042 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 The structure of Ernesto this afternoon has continued to improve, with a more distinct eye becoming apparent on recent visible and infrared satellite images. This improving inner-core structure is also exhibited in a 1808 UTC GMI microwave pass that also showed a closed cyan ring on the 37-GHz color composite channel, which could be a harbinger for more significant intensification. While subjective Dvorak estimates have not increased much this afternoon, the objective intensity values now range from 60-69 kt and so the initial intensity was raised to 65 kt, making Ernesto a hurricane again. Ernesto's wind field is a bit smaller than yesterday, as indicated by a helpful set of scatterometer passes over Ernesto that were useful to adjust the 34- and 50-kt wind radii earlier today. With the improving inner-core structure, Ernesto is looking increasingly likely to take advantage of the favorable short-term conditions until the hurricane reaches the northern extent of the Gulf Stream at around 40 N. The raw output form the hurricane-regional model guidance now all show an overnight or Monday morning peak intensity of 75-kt or higher in the next 12-24 h, and the latest NHC intensity forecast now shows a bit more intensification overnight. However, Ernesto will quickly move over cooler ocean waters just after 12 h and weakening will likely be well underway by tomorrow afternoon. Shear is also forecast to increase after that time as well, and my best guess at the timing of extratropical transition, diagnosed by FSU cyclone-phase space diagrams and GFS/EC simulated satellite imagery, is shortly after 36 h on Tuesday morning as Ernesto passes just southeast of Newfoundland. The NHC intensity forecast is on the upper-end of the interpolated guidance aids in 12 h, but falls back to the multi-model intensity mean towards the end of its lifespan in 60-h where the cyclone will open up into a trough over the central North Atlantic. Ernesto continues its gradual acceleration north-northeast, estimated now at 020/15-kt. A further increase in forward motion with a turn more northeastward is anticipated over the next 24-36 h as Ernesto becomes caught up in the flow between a large deep-layer trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge centered to the hurricane's southeast. A turn more east-northeastward is expected thereafter before the cyclone becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone located further north between Greenland and Iceland. The track guidance this cycle remains tightly clustered and pretty close to the prior forecast track, and only slight track adjustments were made this cycle. On this track, Ernesto should make its closest approach to Newfoundland just to the southeast early Tuesday morning, with the bulk of the cyclone's wind field staying offshore of the Canadian Provence. Key Messages: 1. Even though Ernesto is forecast to remain well offshore of the U.S. East Coast, swells generated by the hurricane will continue to affect the area through the early part of this week. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. Surf and rip currents are also possible on the Bahamas, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. 2. Ernesto could bring wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland Monday night into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 37.1N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 39.2N 60.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 42.6N 57.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 46.1N 50.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 48.9N 41.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 21/0600Z 51.0N 29.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 182042 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) 25(25) 33(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X 3( 3) 31(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 3 17(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...ERNESTO IS A HURRICANE AGAIN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Aug 18 the center of Ernesto was located near 37.1, -62.3 with movement NNE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 182041 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Sun Aug 18 2024 ...ERNESTO IS A HURRICANE AGAIN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS OCCURING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.1N 62.3W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM S OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 62.3 West. Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion with some increase in forward speed is forecast tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast and east-northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland late Monday into Tuesday morning. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional intensification is forecast over the next 12 hours followed by weakening before Ernesto becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting portions of the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to continue in these areas during the next couple of days. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182041 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC SUN AUG 18 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 62.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 180SW 230NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 62.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.4N 62.7W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 39.2N 60.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 25SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 42.6N 57.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 170SE 130SW 65NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.1N 50.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 170SE 150SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 48.9N 41.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 170SE 170SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 51.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 170SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 62.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN