Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200231 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 Satellite imagery shows that the convective structure of Ernesto is decaying due to increasing shear and passage over colder water, with most of the remaining convection now in the northeastern quadrant. However, Canadian radar shows the remaining convection still has a good tropical cyclone banding pattern. Satellite intensity estimates were mostly near 75 kt at 00Z, and based on the loss of organization since that time the initial intensity is decreased to 70 kt. Ernesto should continue steady to rapid weakening due to shear and cold water. The new intensity forecast has the cyclone losing its remaining convection and becoming a post-tropical low by 24 h. However, this could be generous, and the system could become post-tropical at any time. After 24 h, Ernesto is going to become involved with a large baroclinic low developing near Iceland, and as this occurs it is likely to develop or merge with a frontal zone to become extratropical. The system is expected to degenerate to a trough on the south side of the larger low by 48 h. The hurricane is now accelerating northeastward with the initial motion of 050/30 kt. The strong flow between an approaching mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge over the subtropical central Atlantic should cause the cyclone to accelerate even more during the next 24 h, and a rapid east-northeastward motion should continue as the baroclinic low becomes the predominant steering influence. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the tightly clustered models and has no significant change since the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. The effects of swells generated by Ernesto on the coasts of Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada should diminish during the next day or so. Until then, beach goers should be aware that there still could be a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. 2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland during the next several hours. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 45.7N 53.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 48.0N 47.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 50.6N 36.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 21/1200Z 52.8N 24.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 22/0000Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 200231 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA... ...ERNESTO PASSING SOUTH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Aug 19 the center of Ernesto was located near 45.7, -53.1 with movement NE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200230 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA... ...ERNESTO PASSING SOUTH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...45.7N 53.1W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto until the center moves into the open Atlantic. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 45.7 North, longitude 53.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). An even faster motion to the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto is currently near its closest approach to Newfoundland, and it should move into the open Atlantic on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday or Tuesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting Bermuda, the northeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. The swells and the associated life-threatening surf and rip current conditions should gradually subside during the next day or so. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 200230 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 0300 UTC TUE AUG 20 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.7N 53.1W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW. 34 KT.......180NE 190SE 140SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 330SE 300SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 45.7N 53.1W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 44.8N 55.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 48.0N 47.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 160SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 50.6N 36.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 200SE 160SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.8N 24.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 210SE 160SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 45.7N 53.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

320
ABNT20 KNHC 192329
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles
south of Atlantic Canada.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 20:46:51 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 21:23:04 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 967 WTNT45 KNHC 192036 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 Ernesto is maintaining its intensity at high latitudes. The hurricane continues to have an eye feature, especially in the mid-levels, and thunderstorms remain most organized north of the center. Recent microwave images indicate that the circulation has become titled from southwest to northeast with height, an indication of increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 80 kt, in general agreement with the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Ernesto has likely peaked in strength. Since the hurricane has now crossed the north wall of the Gulf Stream and moving into an environment of increasing shear and drier air, steady or rapid weakening is expected to begin soon. The environmental factors should also cause extratropical transition, which will likely be complete Tuesday morning. The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and in line with the bulk of the guidance. The hurricane is gradually accelerating to the northeast, or 35 degrees at 23 kt. The strong flow between an approaching mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge over the subtropical central Atlantic should cause the cyclone to accelerate even more and turn to the northeast and east-northeast during the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the tightly clustered models. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Ernesto will continue to affect the coasts of Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada during the next day or so. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. 2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 43.8N 56.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 46.4N 51.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 49.2N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0600Z 51.5N 30.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1800Z 53.8N 18.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA... ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL EARLY TUESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Aug 19 the center of Ernesto was located near 43.8, -56.1 with movement NE at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTNT35 KNHC 192035 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 500 PM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA... ...ERNESTO EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL EARLY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.8N 56.1W ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 43.8 North, longitude 56.1 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). An even faster motion to the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland tonight and early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid weakening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting Bermuda, the northeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to continue in these areas during the next day or so. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 FONT15 KNHC 192035 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 56 44(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 1 59(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 000 WTNT25 KNHC 192035 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 2100 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 56.1W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 90SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......180NE 190SE 150SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 280SE 250SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 56.1W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.9N 57.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 46.4N 51.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 190SE 160SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 49.2N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 200SE 160SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 51.5N 30.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 210SE 160SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 53.8N 18.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 180SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 56.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

852
ABNT20 KNHC 191733
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles
south-southwest of Atlantic Canada.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 14:49:32 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 19 Aug 2024 15:22:57 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 000 WTNT45 KNHC 191448 TCDAT5 Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 Ernesto continues to slowly gain strength. Satellite images indicate that the eye of the hurricane has become a little better defined, but the storm still has a convective asymmetry with the strongest thunderstorms on the north side. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were 4.5/77 kt and the objective satellite guidance is a little higher. Based on the data and the improved structure, the initial wind speed is increased to 80 kt. A very recent ASCAT pass indicated that Ernesto remains a large tropical cyclone. The strongest winds and largest radius of hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds are located in the southeastern quadrant. The hurricane is gradually accelerating to the north-northeast, or 30 degrees at 19 kt. The strong flow between an approaching mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a ridge over the subtropical central Atlantic should cause the cyclone to accelerate even more and turn to the northeast and east-northeast during the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Ernesto is now crossing the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and will soon be moving over sharply cooler SSTs. In addition, the hurricane will be moving into an environment of stronger shear and drier air. All of these conditions should lead to weakening very soon and extratropical transition, which is expected to be complete by early Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows the GFS guidance during the extratropical phase. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Ernesto will continue to affect the coasts of Bermuda, the northeast U.S., and Atlantic Canada during the next day or so. Beach goers should be aware that there is a significant risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, and should stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. 2. Ernesto will likely bring some wind, wave, and rain impacts to portions of southeastern Newfoundland tonight into Tuesday morning. Breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Bunin east to Avalon regions. For additional impact specific information, please see statements issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 41.8N 58.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 44.5N 54.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 21/0000Z 49.9N 36.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 21/1200Z 52.2N 24.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 715 FONT15 KNHC 191447 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 1 93(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X 48(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 34 23(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) ILE ST PIERRE 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 164 WTNT25 KNHC 191447 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052024 1500 UTC MON AUG 19 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 58.5W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......160NE 190SE 110SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..260NE 270SE 240SW 200NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.8N 58.5W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 59.6W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 44.5N 54.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 35SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 47.7N 46.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 180SE 150SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 49.9N 36.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 170SE 170SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 52.2N 24.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 170SE 170SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.8N 58.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Aug 19 the center of Ernesto was located near 41.8, -58.5 with movement NE at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 394 WTNT35 KNHC 191447 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052024 1100 AM AST Mon Aug 19 2024 ...ERNESTO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUING ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.8N 58.5W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in southeastern Newfoundland should monitor the progress of Ernesto. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was located near latitude 41.8 North, longitude 58.5 West. Ernesto is moving toward the northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Ernesto will pass near southeastern Newfoundland tonight and early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Ernesto is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ernesto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Ernesto are affecting Bermuda, the northeast coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are likely to continue in these areas during the next day or so. In southeastern Newfoundland large breaking waves could bring the possibility of coastal flooding, particularly along southwest-facing shorelines from Burin east to Avalon regions. Please consult products from your local weather office, and stay out of the water if advised by lifeguards. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Ernesto, located over the western Atlantic a few hundred miles
south of Atlantic Canada.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul