000
ABNT20 KNHC 111140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Francine, located over the western Gulf of Mexico a couple hundred
miles off the coast of Louisiana.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization with a
tropical wave located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form over the next few days as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph into the central Tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some slight development during the next day or two
while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is expected to reach an area of
stronger upper-level winds on Thursday, likely ending its chances
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands:
A small but well-defined area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing an
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The proximity of dry
air near the system is expected to limit additional development over
the next couple of days before environmental conditions become even
less conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern
U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development
is possible during the early part of next week as the system
meanders over the Gulf Stream or drifts slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 10:19:11 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 09:27:34 GMT

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110855 TCDAT1 Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 As expected, Francine has strengthened and become better organized overnight. Radar data and earlier reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate the eyewall is better defined, with deep convection wrapping around the center of the hurricane. The eyewall has contracted a bit from earlier, although it was open to the south on the last fix and in more recent GMI passive microwave images. The microwave data also showed some northeastward vortex tilt with height, a sign that Francine is experiencing some effects of southwesterly shear. Based on the earlier peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 89 kt, the initial intensity is set at 80 kt, with a minimum pressure of 977 mb based on aircraft data. Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Francine again this morning. The hurricane is moving northeastward at 035/9 kt. A slightly faster northeastward motion is forecast today and tonight as the hurricane is steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas. This will bring the core of Francine toward the Louisiana coast today, with landfall expected within the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the north will bring the center of Francine across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. The track guidance is fairly tightly clustered, and the latest NHC forecast lies near the center of the guidance envelope and very close to the consensus aids. The structure of Francine could allow for some additional short-term strengthening this morning over the very warm Gulf waters, and this is reflected in the updated NHC forecast. Southwesterly shear is expected to increase over the hurricane later today, and interaction with an upper trough should cause drier air to wrap around the southern portion of Francine as it nears the coast. Thus, the hurricane is not expected to continue strengthening through landfall, but will continue to pose a significant risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds to locations in the warning areas. Once inland, Francine is expected to rapidly weaken, quickly lose tropical characteristics, and transition to an extratropical cyclone over northern Mississippi. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana later today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area later this morning, and preparations to protect life and property should be complete. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and northern Florida through Thursday night. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 27.0N 93.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 28.5N 92.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 30.6N 90.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1800Z 33.0N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0600Z 34.7N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 13/1800Z 35.3N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 08:55:40 GMT

Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110854 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 93.8W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 93.8 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected today, and Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected this morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama today and tonight. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 110854 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0900 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOBILE AL 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 1 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) STENNIS MS 34 1 29(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) STENNIS MS 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 2 19(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 890W 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 34 1 4( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 65(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 11(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOUMA LA 34 11 74(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) HOUMA LA 50 X 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) HOUMA LA 64 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 82 4(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) GFMX 280N 910W 50 12 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 910W 64 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 3 77(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 22 74(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) MORGAN CITY LA 50 2 45(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) MORGAN CITY LA 64 1 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 34 8 60(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 19 64(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) NEW IBERIA LA 50 1 26(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 64 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) LAKE CHARLES 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CAMERON LA 34 25 9(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CAMERON LA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 110854 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0900 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 93.8W AT 11/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 93.8W AT 11/0900Z AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 94.1W FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.5N 92.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.6N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.0N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 34.7N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.3N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 93.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 100 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 110545 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 100 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...FRANCINE A LITTLE STRONGER... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 94.1W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 94.1 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected today, and Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward into Mississippi tonight and Thursday. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected this morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama today and tonight. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Vermilion/Cameron Line, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Cameron, LA to Vermilion/Cameron Line, LA...3-5 ft Pointe a la Hache, LA to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today into tonight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 05:45:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 03:23:02 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110544
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Francine, located over the western Gulf of Mexico.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some slight development during the next day or two
while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is expected to reach an area of
stronger upper-level winds on Thursday, likely ending its chances
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
A trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
producing a large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms
from near the Cabo Verde Islands extending southwestward for
several hundred miles. Environmental conditions appear favorable
for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
will likely form during the latter part of this week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 04:39:41 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 03:25:28 GMT

...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 the center of Francine was located near 27.0, -93.8 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1020 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 000 WTNT61 KNHC 110321 TCUAT1 Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1020 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND FRANCINE HAS STRENGTHENED... Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Francine has strengthened, with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 1020 PM CDT...0320 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.4N 94.3W ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 02:38:27 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 02:38:27 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 02:34:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 02:34:34 GMT

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 110232 TCDAT1 Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024 Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Francine tonight, and the data they collected were the basis for upgrading it to a hurricane a few hours ago. The maximum 700 mb flight-level wind measured was 76 kt, which supports an intensity of about 65 kt. The aircraft data also indicated that the minimum pressure has fallen several millibars to 980 mb. Deep convection has been increasing near the center, and radar images indicate that an inner core has developed. There is still some dry air, however, outside of the core region. Francine is starting to move a little faster to the northeast, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 035/9 kt. A mid- to upper-level trough over Texas is approaching the hurricane, and that should cause it to accelerate northeastward toward the Louisiana coast, with landfall expected there late Wednesday afternoon or evening. After Francine moves inland, a turn to the north-northeast and a decrease in forward speed is predicted while it moves across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi. The models are in good agreement, and little change was made to the previous track forecast. Now that Francine has a well organized core, significant strengthening seems likely through Wednesday morning while the system remains over very warm waters and in low wind shear conditions. The hurricane regional models are quite aggressive and show Francine strengthening quickly, while the dynamical-statistical models show much less intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is between those solutions and continues to show Francine nearing category 2 strength Wednesday morning. A notable increase in shear and intrusions of dry air should end the opportunity for strengthening just before Francine reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is expected after the cyclone moves inland. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Wednesday for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should follow advice, including evacuation orders, given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana on Wednesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete, since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding across eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday night into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 26.4N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 27.7N 93.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 29.7N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 32.0N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/0000Z 34.2N 89.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 13/1200Z 35.5N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 36.3N 89.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Hagen

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 363 FONT11 KNHC 110232 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0300 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MOBILE AL 34 X 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GULFPORT MS 34 2 17(19) 15(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 34 2 33(35) 21(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) STENNIS MS 50 X 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) STENNIS MS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BURAS LA 34 2 41(43) 4(47) X(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) BURAS LA 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 4 23(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 6( 6) 34(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 67(69) 13(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 34(34) 7(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HOUMA LA 34 3 85(88) 3(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) HOUMA LA 50 X 53(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) HOUMA LA 64 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 31 55(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) GFMX 280N 910W 50 2 16(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 76(78) 12(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 49(49) 12(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 91(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 70(70) 4(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 2 12(14) 8(22) X(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 3 71(74) 4(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X 46(46) 4(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 3 82(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 60(60) 4(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 930W 34 98 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 89 7(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) GFMX 280N 930W 64 78 7(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) SHREVEPORT LA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FORT POLK LA 34 2 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LAKE CHARLES 34 3 21(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LAKE CHARLES 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 10 48(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) CAMERON LA 50 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAMERON LA 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GALVESTON TX 34 6 6(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GALVESTON TX 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FREEPORT TX 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 950W 34 34 2(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 280N 950W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MATAGORDA TX 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKPORT TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI