...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON... ...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 11:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 the center of Francine was located near 28.1, -92.6 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 035 WTNT61 KNHC 111556 TCUAT1 Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1100 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON... ...1100 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Outer rainbands are starting to move onshore of the coast of southern Louisiana. These conditions will continue to deteriorate over the next couple of hours. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. An oil platform north of the center recently reported sustained winds of 85 mph (137 km/h) and a gust of 101 mph (163 km/h) at an elevation of 98 ft (30 m). Another position update will be provided at 1200 PM CDT (1700 UTC). SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 92.6W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 15:38:31 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 28.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 28.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 27.9W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 16.6N 31.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.5N 34.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.6N 36.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 19.3N 39.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.9N 41.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.3N 43.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 20.6N 46.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 21.0N 48.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 28.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER MULLINAX/BLAKE NNNN

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 15:23:30 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 14:58:33 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 14:58:33 GMT

Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 111455 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024 Tropical Depression Seven has formed in the eastern Atlantic today. This formation is based on scatterometer depicting a closed circulation center, and organized deep convection based on TAFB/SAB satellite classifications. Satellite imagery also indicates that the low-level circulation has consolidated beneath the mid-level center based upon visible imagery The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, based on the scatterometer data. The depression is estimated to be moving 285/16 kt. The system should move to the west or west-northwest over the next few days with the storm being steered by a subtropical ridge to the north of the Azores. Confidence in the depression's track gradually lessens beyond forecast hour 72 as the synoptic scale flow becomes more complex. The depression will probably gradually slow down between hours 72-120 as it becomes caught between a pair of upper level ridges; one north of the Azores and another north of the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, an amplifying upper trough in the North Atlantic will attempt to deepen far enough south to steer the depression northward. How much the upper trough digs southward will determine if and when the storm takes on a more northerly track, or if it remains at a lower latitude longer. The forecast was placed just south of consensus this forecast period. Wind shear is not expected to be a big hindrance in its development initially while SSTs along its forecast path will generally be around 27C. Thus gradually intensification is shown for the first couple of days. However, shear is forecast to increase thereafter along with more marginal dry air conditions. This forecast leans more heavily on the regional hurricane models which show more modest intensification than the statistical dynamical tools but could be conservative at the end depending on how much latitude the system gains. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.0N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 16.6N 31.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 17.5N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 18.6N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0000Z 19.9N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 20.3N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 20.6N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 21.0N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Mullinax/Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 111455 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 28.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER MULLINAX/BLAKE

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR MANY DAYS... As of 2:00 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 the center of Seven was located near 16.0, -28.7 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 111454 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM CVT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR MANY DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 28.7W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 28.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Mullinax/Blake

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 14:48:40 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 111445 TCDAT1 Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Francine has changed little in intensity during the last several hours. Flight-level winds from the aircraft and a northwest eyewall dropsonde suggest that the maximum sustained surface winds are near 80 kt, and the central pressure is near 976 mb. The aircraft have been reporting a large elliptical eye open to the south, which matches the depiction of the eye in WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Lake Charles. Satellite imagery does show that the cloud pattern is becoming elongated from northeast to southwest due to the increasing effects of southwesterly shear. The initial motion is now 040/10 kt. A slightly faster northeastward motion is forecast this afternoon and tonight as the hurricane becomes steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas. This will bring the core of Francine toward the Louisiana coast, with landfall expected within the hurricane warning area late this afternoon or evening. After landfall, a gradual turn toward the north will bring the center of Francine across southeastern Louisiana and southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday. After that, a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected until the cyclone dissipates. There is little change to either the track guidance or the track forecast from the previous advisory. Due to the increasing shear and the possibility that drier air will wrap around the south side of the center, little change in strength is expected before landfall. However, Francine will continue to pose a significant risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds to locations in the warning areas. Once inland, Francine is expected to quickly weaken while also losing tropical characteristics. Transition to an extratropical cyclone is expected to be complete by Friday morning. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge today for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana later today, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 28.0N 92.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 29.5N 91.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR COAST 24H 12/1200Z 31.8N 90.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/0000Z 34.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 13/1200Z 35.2N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/0000Z 35.7N 90.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON... As of 10:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 the center of Francine was located near 28.0, -92.7 with movement NE at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 111444 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...FRANCINE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 92.7W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch for the Alabama coast, including Mobile bay, has been changed to a Coastal Flood Warning. Please refer to products from local National Weather Service Offices for additional information. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning this afternoon for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected this afternoon, and Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area late this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, the center is expected to cross southeastern Louisiana tonight, then move northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. Francine is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). An oil platform north of the center recently reported sustained winds of 87 mph (141 km/h) and a peak gust of 105 mph (169 km/h) at an elevation of 98 ft (30 m). The minimum central pressure based on the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 976 mb (28.82 inches). An oil platform located east of the center recently reported a pressure of 978.7 mb (28.90 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area this afternoon and tonight, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area during the next several hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama this afternoon and tonight. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 111444 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 1500 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 92.7W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 90SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 92.7W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 93.2W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.5N 91.5W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.8N 90.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 110SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.1N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.2N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.7N 90.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 92.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 11/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 111444 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 1500 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GULFPORT MS 34 2 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) STENNIS MS 34 4 30(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) BURAS LA 34 12 8(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) GFMX 280N 890W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) JACKSON MS 34 1 18(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 56 28(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HOUMA LA 34 91 5(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) HOUMA LA 50 31 11(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) HOUMA LA 64 7 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 82 X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) GFMX 280N 910W 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 34 70 24(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) BATON ROUGE LA 50 3 28(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MORGAN CITY LA 34 97 2(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 61 7(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) MORGAN CITY LA 64 24 12(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 69 7(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) LAFAYETTE LA 50 10 8(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) LAFAYETTE LA 64 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 86 4(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) NEW IBERIA LA 50 27 7(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) NEW IBERIA LA 64 9 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 930W 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAMERON LA 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111345
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
945 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Outlook issued to update the system in the eastern Tropical
Atlantic west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands (AL93).

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Francine, located over the western Gulf of Mexico a couple hundred
miles off the coast of Louisiana.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Updated: Recent satellite-wind data indicates that the system
located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition,
showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization,
and if these trends continue, advisories will be issued on a
tropical depression later this morning. The system is moving to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph and will be moving into the central
Tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some slight development during the next day or two
while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is expected to reach an area of
stronger upper-level winds on Thursday, likely ending its chances
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A small but well-defined area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing an
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The proximity of dry
air near the system is expected to limit additional development over
the next couple of days before environmental conditions become even
less conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern
U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development
is possible during the early part of next week as the system
meanders over the Gulf Stream or drifts slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Blake

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING FRANCINE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 the center of Francine was located near 27.5, -93.3 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 111143 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING FRANCINE... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 93.3W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ENE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Louisiana coast east of Sabine Pass to Vermilion/Cameron Line * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 93.3 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected today, and Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area this afternoon or evening. After landfall, the center is expected to move northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night. Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible this morning. Francine is expected to weaken quickly after it moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 976 mb (28.82 inches). An oil platform near the center recently reported a pressure of 977.7 mb (28.87 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions arriving in the warning area this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama today and tonight. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 11:43:55 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 09:22:57 GMT