Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 21:27:27 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 20:59:10 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 112056 TCDAT1 Hurricane Francine Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Satellite, radar, and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that not only has Francine stayed well organized during the past six hours despite increasing westerly shear, it has strengthened a little. The latest reports from the aircraft showed the central pressure has fallen to near 972 mb with maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 99 kt to the southeast of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt. The initial motion is now 045/15 kt. The flow between a mid- to upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas should steer Francine northeastward for the next 12 h or so. The hurricane is expected to make landfall along the Louisiana coast in the next few hours and move across southeastern Louisiana tonight. After that, a turn toward the north on the east side of the trough will bring the center of Francine across southwestern and central Mississippi on Thursday. This should be followed by a northward motion with a decrease in forward speed until the cyclone dissipates. The new track guidance is a little faster than for the previous advisory, so the new forecast track is similar to, but faster than, the previous track. Little change in strength is expected during the final hours before landfall. After landfall, Francine is expected to quickly weaken while also losing tropical characteristics. Transition to an extratropical cyclone is expected to be complete by Friday morning, with the cyclone forecast to dissipate after 60 h. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through tonight for the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of southern Louisiana this evening and tonight, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 29.2N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 30.8N 90.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/1800Z 33.3N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/0600Z 35.0N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/1800Z 35.7N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/0600Z 36.3N 90.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 112056 PWSAT1 HURRICANE FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 36 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) STENNIS MS 34 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) STENNIS MS 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 44 X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) JACKSON MS 34 4 35(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 25 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOUMA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUMA LA 50 82 X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) HOUMA LA 64 21 X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 50 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BATON ROUGE LA 64 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) MORGAN CITY LA 64 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) LAFAYETTE LA 34 74 X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 50 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW IBERIA LA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 112056 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...FRANCINE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS THE EYE APPROACHES THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 91.5W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning is discontinued west of the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Louisiana coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Line * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning shortly for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 91.5 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion should continue through this afternoon, and Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area in the next few hours. After landfall, the center is expected to cross southeastern Louisiana tonight, then move northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. Francine is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical Thursday night or Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). An oil platform southeast of the center recently reported sustained winds of 79 mph (127 km/h) and a peak gust of 93 mph (150 km/h) at an elevation of 82 ft (25 m). The National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana, recently reported sustained winds of 76 mph (122 km/h) and a wind gust of 99 mph (159 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading into the hurricane warning area, with tropical storm conditions already ongoing. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area this evening and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama this evening and tonight. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. On Thursday, the tornado risk will move into additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 000 WTNT21 KNHC 112055 TCMAT1 HURRICANE FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 91.5W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 180SE 120SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 91.5W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 92.1W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.8N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 120SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 33.3N 90.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 35.0N 90.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.7N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 36.3N 90.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 91.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 20:48:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 21:28:56 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 112043 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 Satellite images show there has been little change with the depression this afternoon. Although deep convection has faded some, this is pretty typical at this time of day. The initial wind speed will stay 30 kt, similar to the recent objective and subjective Dvorak classifications. The depression is still moving 285/16, and little change to the motion is expected over the next 36 to 48 hours before its forward speed slows in response to the approach of an amplifying mid-level trough over the Atlantic. The big change to note is that most of the guidance is significantly slower and now start to recurve the system around day 5 (rather than continue westward). The new forecast is a lot slower than the previous one and future adjustments could be made if later guidance continue this trend (continuity prevents a larger change). Generally low wind shear and warm waters for the first couple of days should allow the depression to strengthen during that time. Thereafter, an increase in westerly shear and possible dry air intrusions could prevent further intensification, but this is still a pretty uncertain forecast at long range due to the track uncertainty. Most of the models are a bit lower beyond 2 days, and the new NHC intensity forecast is nudged downward at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 16.2N 30.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 17.0N 32.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 17.8N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 18.8N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 19.6N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 20.2N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 20.7N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Bann/Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 112042 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BANN/BLAKE

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 11 the center of Seven was located near 16.2, -30.3 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT32 KNHC 112042 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 30.3W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 30.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and a west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Bann/Blake

Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 233 WTNT22 KNHC 112041 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 2100 UTC WED SEP 11 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 30.3W AT 11/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 30.3W AT 11/2100Z AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 29.6W FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.0N 32.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.8N 35.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 18.8N 37.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 19.3N 39.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.6N 41.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 20.2N 44.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 20.7N 47.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 30.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BANN/BLAKE

...FRANCINE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS THE EYE APPROACHES THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 the center of Francine was located near 29.2, -91.5 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT61 KNHC 111956 TCUAT1 Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 300 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...FRANCINE'S EYEWALL NEARING SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...300 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Hurricane-force winds in the northern eyewall of Francine are nearing the coast of southern Louisiana. Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Have multiple ways to receive warnings and updates. An oil platform east of the center recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a peak gust of 92 mph (148 km/h) at an elevation of 102 ft (31 m). A NOS station located on Eugene Island recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a peak gust of 70 mph (113 km/h). Another position update will be provided at 500 PM CDT (2200 UTC) following the issuance of the full advisory package at 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC). SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 91.5W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...200 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 2:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 the center of Francine was located near 28.7, -91.8 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT61 KNHC 111858 TCUAT1 Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 200 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...200 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall are spreading inland across southern Louisiana, and conditions will continue to deteriorate over the next several hours. Hurricane force-winds are located just offshore. Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Have multiple ways to receive warnings and updates. An oil platform southeast of the center recently reported sustained winds of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a peak gust of 112 mph (180 km/h) at an elevation of 102 ft (31 m). A NOS station located on Eugene Island recently reported reported sustained winds of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a peak gust of 53 mph (61 km/h). Another position update will be provided at 300 PM CDT (2000 UTC). SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.7N 91.8W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...27 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 17:45:29 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 15:22:57 GMT

Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 439 WTNT31 KNHC 111744 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 100 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NOW REACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 92.1W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the southwestern coast of Louisiana west of Cameron. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Cameron Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Louisiana coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Line * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning shortly for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be completed. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 92.1 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion should continue through this afternoon, and Francine is anticipated to make landfall in Louisiana within the warning area later this afternoon or this evening. After landfall, the center is expected to cross southeastern Louisiana tonight, then move northward across Mississippi on Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. Francine is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). An oil platform east of the center recently reported sustained winds of 83 mph (134 km/h) and a peak gust of 102 mph (164 km/h) at an elevation of 102 ft (31 m). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). The oil platform with the winds reported above also reported a pressure of 983.3 mb (29.04 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions ongoing. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area later this afternoon and tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama this afternoon and tonight. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Cameron, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this afternoon and tonight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 111742
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
200 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Francine, located just south of Louisiana, and on newly formed
Tropical Depression Seven located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some slight development during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the
central tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is expected to reach an
area of stronger upper-level winds on Friday, likely ending its
chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A small but well-defined area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing
limited shower and thunderstorm activity. The proximity of dry
air near the system is expected to limit additional development
over the next couple of days before environmental conditions
become even less conducive by this weekend while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the
southeastern U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or
tropical development is possible during the early part of next week
while the system drifts to the north or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued
under WMO header WTNT32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Seven are issued
under WMO header WTNT22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.


$$
Forecaster Bann/Blake

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NOW REACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 1:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 the center of Francine was located near 28.6, -92.1 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.