Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 03:39:26 GMT

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 798 WTNT41 KNHC 120248 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Francine Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Francine made landfall in Terrebonne Parish in southern Louisiana around 5 pm CDT (2200 UTC) as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum winds at landfall were estimated to be around 85 kt based on data collected by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. Since then, Francine has been rapidly weakening, and the maximum winds are now estimated to be near 60 kt, making it a tropical storm. The convective pattern has become quite asymmetric with nearly all of the heavy rains confined to the north of the center. Some of the heaviest rainfall and tropical-storm-force winds are occurring in metropolitan New Orleans, where there have been gusts to near 60 kt. The storm continues to move northeastward at a relatively quick 14 kt. However, a slow down is expected as the system weakens and merges with a mid- to upper-level trough to its northwest, which could cause flooding over portions of the southern U.S. As Francine continues inland, the storm will spin down and likely become a tropical depression by late Thursday and a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday. An experimental cone graphic that includes inland Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings in the U.S. is now available on the NHC website. Due to the time needed to compile the inland watch and warning information, the experimental cone graphic will not be available as quickly as the operational cone. Once it is available, the experimental cone graphic can be found from a red weblink above the operational cone graphic at www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents. Users are encouraged to take the experimental product survey found below the experimental cone. KEY MESSAGES: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge during the next several hours for portions of the Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines, where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect. Residents in the warning area should continue to follow advice given by local officials. 2. Damaging winds are expected to continue in portions of southern Louisiana overnight. Remain in a safe location until conditions improve. 3. Francine is expected to bring heavy rainfall and the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with river flooding, across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. Flash and urban flooding is probable across the Lower Tennessee Valley and Lower Mississippi Valley into Friday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 30.2N 90.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 12/1200Z 32.0N 89.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 13/0000Z 34.4N 89.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 13/1200Z 35.4N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 262 FONT11 KNHC 120247 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MOBILE AL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) STENNIS MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) STENNIS MS 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JACKSON MS 34 12 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUMA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUMA LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HOUMA LA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 203 WTNT21 KNHC 120247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062024 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 90.6W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 70SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 120SE 70SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 90.6W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 90.9W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 32.0N 89.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 34.4N 89.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 35.4N 90.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.9N 90.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 90.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 12/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 032 WTNT31 KNHC 120247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO HURRICANE-FORCE OCCURRING IN METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 90.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. All Hurricane Watches have been discontinued. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings west of Intracoastal City have been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning west of Avery Island has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Avery Island Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City, Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning shortly for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 90.6 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slower north-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Francine is expected to become a tropical depression by late Thursday and a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. Gusts to hurricane-force have been occurring in the New Orleans area. The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in portions of the warning area through early Thursday. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-8 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-6 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. On Thursday, the tornado risk will move into additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 02:39:22 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 03:28:47 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 120235 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 Periodic bursts of convection have been growing and fading in the tropical depression this evening. Earlier microwave imagery from SSMIS showed a fragmented curved band wrapping around the northern and western portion of the circulation. Subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB were T-2.5/35 kt and T-1.5/25 kt respectively and based on a blend of these, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 285/15 kt along the southern side of a mid-level ridge centered over the northeastern Atlantic. This motion should continue for the next day or so until the forward speed decreases when the ridge is eroded by an amplifying mid-level trough. By the end of the forecast period, the system should begin to turn northward toward a break in the ridge. Beyond 72 h, there is quite a bit of spread in the track guidance due to the models varying the timing of the turn to the north. The latest track forecast is similar to the previous prediction, and lies near the various consensus aids. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual strengthening for the next couple of days. Afterwards The depression is forecast to move into a drier air mass and it could experience moderate wind shear and possible dry air intrusions. The long range intensity forecast is also rather uncertain and few changes have been made to the new NHC intensity forecast, which lies near HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 16.5N 31.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 17.1N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 18.1N 35.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 18.9N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 19.3N 39.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 14/1200Z 19.6N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 19.9N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 20.5N 44.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 21.3N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 120235 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 11 the center of Seven was located near 16.5, -31.3 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 753 WTNT32 KNHC 120234 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 11 2024 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 31.3W ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 31.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to west-northwest motion at a slower forward speed is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 752 WTNT22 KNHC 120234 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072024 0300 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 31.3W AT 12/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 31.3W AT 12/0300Z AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 30.7W FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 17.1N 33.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 18.1N 35.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 18.9N 38.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 19.3N 39.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 19.6N 41.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.9N 42.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 20.5N 44.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 21.3N 46.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 31.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

...CENTER OF FRANCINE PASSING NORTHWEST OF NEW ORLEANS... ...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 the center of Francine was located near 30.2, -90.3 with movement NE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 800 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 049 WTNT61 KNHC 120051 TCUAT1 Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 800 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS SPREADING ACROSS NEW ORLEANS... ...800 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Francine continues to move inland over southern Louisiana. Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rains, and hurricane-force winds are affecting portions of the area. Stay inside and away from windows and have multiple ways to receive warnings and updates. Heavy rains and gusty winds are spreading across metropolitan New Orleans. An observation in Lakefront Airport has recently reported sustained winds of 37 mph (59 km/h) with a gust to 49 mph (80 km/h). Conditions are expected to continue to deteriorate during the next couple of hours. This is the last hourly position update on Francine. SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 90.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

947
ABNT20 KNHC 112349
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Francine, located over southern Louisiana and on Tropical
Depression Seven located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for some slight
development during the next day or so while the system moves
westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. The
disturbance is expected to reach an area of stronger upper-level
winds on Friday, likely ending its chances for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the
east of the Leeward Islands is producing a limited area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The proximity of dry air
near the system is expected to limit additional development over the
next couple of days before environmental conditions become even less
conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore the Southeastern U.S.:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern
U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development
is possible during the early part of next week while the system
drifts to the north or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 23:44:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 21:22:57 GMT

Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 000 WTNT31 KNHC 112344 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 700 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 90.9W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Vermilion Bay * Lake Maurepas * Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * The Louisiana coast from Vermilion/Cameron Line eastward to Grand Isle A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Louisiana coast from Cameron to the Vermilion/Cameron Line * East of Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Maurepas and Lake Pontchartrain, including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, beginning shortly for the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Francine was located inland near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 90.9 West. Francine is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general motion should continue, taking the system across southeastern Louisiana tonight and across Mississippi Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected, and the system is forecast to become post-tropical Thursday night or Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Hurricane Francine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO header WTNT41 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of the hurricane warning area, with tropical storm conditions spreading inland. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama tonight. RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could lead to considerable flash, urban and river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero. For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Ocean Springs, MS...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain...4-6 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...3-5 ft Intracoastal City, LA to Burns Point, LA...3-5 ft Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across parts of southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. On Thursday, the tornado risk will move into additional parts of Alabama, southwest Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting much of the northern Gulf Coast, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 the center of Francine was located near 29.6, -90.9 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 978 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 705 WTNT61 KNHC 112256 TCUAT1 Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 600 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...600 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... The eye of Francine is located just inland over southern Louisiana. Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rains, and hurricane-force winds continue to affect portions of the area. Stay inside and away from windows and have multiple ways to receive warnings and updates. A Weatherflow observation in Dulac recently reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (109 km/h) and a peak gust of 97 mph (156 km/h). A gust to 59 mph (94 km/h) was recently measured in Patterson. Another position update will be provided at 800 PM CDT (0100 UTC) after the issuance of the intermediate public advisory. SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 91.0W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 11 Sep 2024 22:04:57 GMT