Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 060848 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Milton Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Satellite imagery this morning suggests that Milton is getting better organized, with the central dense overcast getting larger and some outer banding forming in the western semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates currently range between 30-45 kt, and based on this and the increasing organization the initial intensity is set at 45 kt. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Milton. Milton has turned eastward with the initial motion of 090/4 kt. Westerly flow on the south side of a shortwave trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should steer the storm generally eastward during the next 36-48 h. After that, a second trough moving over the northwestern Gulf should cause the storm to turn northeastward toward the Florida Peninsula at a faster forward speed. While the track guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario, there remains some spread in both the track and forward speed, so it is too early to specify which portions of the Florida Peninsula will get the worst impacts. After crossing Florida, Milton should turn eastward over the Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerly flow. The new forecast track is nudged a little south of the previous track and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 4 is around 150 miles. Therefore, users are reminded to not focus on the exact track. The intensity forecast has a lot of complexities. First, Milton is a small cyclone, and such systems can both strengthen and weaken very rapidly. Second, while the cyclone is going to be in a favorable environment through about 60 h, it will encounter strong shear and dry air entrainment after that time. Third, the proximity of a frontal system over the northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida suggests the possibility that Milton will undergo extratropical transition at some point during the forecast period. The intensity guidance continues to show a significant spread in the forecast peak intensity in 60-72 h, with possibilities ranging from category 1 to category 5 strength. Also, some of the intensity guidance forecasts Milton to rapidly weaken over water after peak intensity, while other models suggest the storm will only weaken slightly. The new intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows Milton reaching a peak intensity of 105 kt at 72 h. However, this is below the intensity consensus, and it would not be surprising if the storm gets stronger. Milton is expected to weaken and start extratropical transition while over Florida, with the transition completed by 120 h. Regardless of the details, there is increasing confidence that a powerful hurricane with life-threatening hazards will be affecting portions of the Florida west coast around the middle of this week. Residents there should closely monitor this system and listen to local officials. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to quickly intensify while it moves eastward to northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula mid week. Hurricane Watches could be issued as early as late today for portions of Florida. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning late Tuesday or Wednesday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, follow any advice given by local officials, and check back for updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 23.0N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 22.9N 92.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 22.9N 91.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 23.4N 89.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 24.5N 87.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 29.0N 80.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 31.0N 74.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 060845 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 6(38) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 7(43) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 4(18) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 6(28) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 3(37) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 6(42) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 36(41) 4(45) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 5(46) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 3(14) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 6(58) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 46(52) 7(59) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 40(46) 5(51) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 4(19) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) 3(41) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) 2(34) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 14(28) 1(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) 1(35) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 31(55) 1(56) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 28(42) 2(44) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 41(71) 1(72) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) 1(39) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 1(20) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 48(69) 3(72) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 2(38) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 43(56) 3(59) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 2(32) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 1(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 2(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 20(33) 1(34) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 24(45) 1(46) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 1(26) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) 1(25) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 3(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) X(16) X(16) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 5(29) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 1(24) X(24) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE MILTON... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 23.0, -94.9 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060845 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE MILTON... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W ABOUT 355 MI...565 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for portions of Florida late today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane tonight, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 060845 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 94.9W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.9N 92.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.9N 91.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 15SE 15SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.4N 89.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.5N 87.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.0N 80.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 130SW 140NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 31.0N 74.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 80SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 180SE 210SW 210NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 94.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

208
ABNT20 KNHC 060534
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean,
and on Tropical Storm Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
in a few days. Some development of this system is possible
thereafter while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or
over the Cabo Verde Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests
there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Milton are issued under WMO
header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Milton are issued under WMO
header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 05:32:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 03:35:05 GMT

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 060530 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...MILTON MOVING SLOWLY BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 95.1W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for portions of Florida late Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 95.1 West. Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 4 mph (6 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane tonight, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...MILTON MOVING SLOWLY BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 23.0, -95.1 with movement NNE at 4 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN Tropical Storm Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...MILTON MOVING SLOWLY BUT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY... ...RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS INCREASING FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 95.1W ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will likely be required for portions of Florida late Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Milton was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 95.1 West. Milton is moving toward the north-northeast near 4 mph (6 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of days, followed by a faster northeastward motion. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move across the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane tonight, and it could become a major hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Tropical Storm Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 8 inches, with localized totals up to 12 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to moderate river flooding. The system may also produce rainfall of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in the Yucatan Peninsula Monday night and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system will begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven NNNN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 02:51:04 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 03:29:03 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 02:47:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 03:23:07 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 567 WTNT43 KNHC 060246 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 Leslie is holding steady this evening. Geostationary imagery shows a growing Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with periodic burst of embedded deep convection. An ASCAT pass from earlier showed that has a small core with the center near the southern side of the deep convection. Objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 50 to 77 kt. The initial intensity is held at an uncertain 70 kt, favoring the SAB and TAFB estimates. The hurricane is moving at an estimated 310/8 kt. A subtropical ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic has turned Leslie to the northwest, and this motion is expected to continue, with a slight increase in forward speed, for the entire forecast period. Model guidance is in relatively good agreement about this forecast and only small adjustments have been made to the latest NHC track prediction. According to the SHIP diagnostics, Leslie only has a few more hours in the low vertical wind shear environment. On Sunday, increasing wind shear and dry mid-level humidities should induce a gradual weakening trend for the entire forecast period. Some model guidance is showing that Leslie could weaken quicker than forecast, and adjustments to the intensity forecast could be necessary in subsequent advisories. The latest NHC forecast has been nudged downward, slightly above the consensus aid IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 12.4N 36.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 13.2N 37.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 14.4N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 15.5N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 16.8N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 19.5N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 21.7N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 23.4N 51.2W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci

...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 5 the center of Leslie was located near 12.4, -36.9 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 060245 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 ...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 36.9W ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 36.9 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a slight increase in forward speed during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday and continue through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 060245 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 060245 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 36.9W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 36.9W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 36.6W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.2N 37.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 14.4N 39.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 15.5N 40.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 16.8N 42.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.2N 44.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.5N 46.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 21.7N 49.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 51.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 36.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060244 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 05 2024 Kirk is gradually succumbing to the effects of increasing vertical wind shear. Based on geostationary satellite imagery, the eye is becoming more ragged and cloud-filled, and the southwestern quadrant is wrapping in more dry air. Dvorak estimates have decreased this cycle and the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt, closest to the TAFB estimate of 102 kt. The hurricane is moving northward at 17 kt in the flow between a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic and a subtropical ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic. Model guidance remains tightly clustered, and very few changes have been made to the latest official track forecast which lie close to the various consensus aids. Kirk is expected to move north of the Azores on Monday and move over western Europe Tuesday evening or Wednesday. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are expected to become less conducive in the coming days. Vertical wind shear should become quite strong later Sunday, and Kirk is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm Sunday evening. Global models predict Kirk to become an extratropical cyclone on Tuesday and to then be absorbed into a larger extratropical system later this week over northern Europe. The latest NHC intensity forecast now reflects these changes. Kirk is producing ocean swells that are propagating far away from the hurricane. These large swells have increased the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, and the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and portions of the U.S. East Coast. By Sunday, swells are expected to spread northward along the eastern seaboard and reach the Azores by Monday. For more information on this hazard, see products issued by your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 31.3N 49.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 34.0N 48.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 37.6N 44.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 40.7N 39.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 42.8N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/1200Z 43.7N 24.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/0000Z 44.1N 15.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/0000Z 49.5N 3.7E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 060244 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC SUN OCT 06 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

...KIRK SENDING LARGE SWELL TOWARDS THE U.S. EAST COAST... ...INCREASED RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Oct 5 the center of Kirk was located near 31.3, -49.3 with movement N at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.