Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070242 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Milton continues to intensify. The hurricane's center is embedded within a circular Central Dense Overcast containing very intense convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Tail Doppler wind data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the circulation is quite symmetric, with very little vertical tilt from 1 to 5 km elevation. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is falling and that the intensity has increased to near 80 kt. Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the hurricane is moving generally eastward with an initial motion estimate of 100/6 kt. Milton is moving within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to mid-level cyclone currently over the eastern Gulf. The numerical guidance indicates that this cyclone will shift east of Florida within the next day or two, so that its influence on Milton will gradually lessen with time. As the mid-level trough digs over the central Gulf, the hurricane should turn northeastward with some increase in forward speed during the next 2-3 days and be near the west coast of Florida in the 72 hour time frame. After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the southeastern United States. The official track forecast follows essentially the same trajectory as the previous NHC prediction but is a bit slower, in accordance with the latest dynamical model consensus guidance. Again it should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. Milton should continue to traverse waters of very high oceanic heat content within an environment of light vertical wind shear and moist low- to mid-level air for the next 1-2 days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Milton rapidly strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of days. Thereafter, stronger upper-level westerlies over the northern Gulf of Mexico should result in increasing shear. The latest SHIPS model output shows the shear over Milton increasing significantly in 60-72 hours. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. 2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life- threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 070242 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 1(17) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 17(35) 1(36) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) 1(42) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) X(25) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 12(36) X(36) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 22(50) X(50) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 37(37) 16(53) X(53) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 10(26) X(26) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 19(61) X(61) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) X(28) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 22(75) 1(76) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) X(41) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) 22(75) 1(76) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 19(41) X(41) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) X(21) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 51(52) 17(69) 1(70) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 13(34) X(34) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 45(46) 13(59) X(59) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) X(24) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 44(45) 7(52) 1(53) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 5(29) X(29) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 36(40) 2(42) X(42) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 38(46) 2(48) X(48) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 66(71) 4(75) X(75) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) 4(42) X(42) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 56(58) 6(64) X(64) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 3(36) X(36) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 2(19) X(19) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 77(82) 6(88) X(88) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 52(52) 6(58) 1(59) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 4(37) X(37) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 70(72) 9(81) X(81) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 8(52) X(52) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 7(32) X(32) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 10(57) X(57) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 9(31) X(31) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) X(25) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 4(35) X(35) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 2 42(44) 8(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) X(53) MERIDA MX 50 X 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MERIDA MX 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COZUMEL MX 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 5(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 18(42) 1(43) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) X(16) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 28(39) 5(44) X(44) X(44) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:42:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 03:28:54 GMT

...MILTON STRENGTHENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 22.4, -93.1 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 977 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070241 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...MILTON STRENGTHENING... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 93.1W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida early Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 93.1 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070241 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 93.1W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 93.1W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 93.4W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 20SE 20SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT...110NE 20SE 100SW 80NW. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 93.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 070241 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...LESLIE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Oct 6 the center of Leslie was located near 15.0, -39.4 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 ...LESLIE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 39.4W ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 39.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin tomorrow and continue through the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070240 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 39.4W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 40SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 39.4W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 39.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 16.0N 40.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.8N 44.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.2N 45.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.2N 47.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.9N 48.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 50.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 39.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:36:08 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 03:23:01 GMT

Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070232 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 Kirk is in the process of transitioning into an extratropical cyclone. Satellite images show that the associated deep convection is now confined to the northern side of the circulation and that the inner core has been eroding. In addition, there appears to be some frontal features beginning to form. The initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt following a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates. The 34-kt wind radii have been tweaked on the system's east side based on recent ASCAT data. Extratropical transition should be complete on Monday when the system moves over water temperatures in the low 20's C and into an environment of nearly 40 kt of vertical wind shear. These parameters will also cause steady weakening during the next few days, and dissipation seems likely by day 4. The models are in good agreement, and this forecast is closest to the latest GFS solution. Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial motion is 045/22 kt. A turn to the east-northeast with a notable increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days as the system moves within the mid-latitude westerly flow. This should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday. Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 38.6N 43.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 41.0N 39.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/0000Z 42.9N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0000Z 43.8N 16.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/1200Z 45.6N 6.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0000Z 48.1N 3.7E 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 070232 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS ...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X 20(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...KIRK EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY... ...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG U.S. EAST COAST... As of 3:00 AM GMT Mon Oct 7 the center of Kirk was located near 38.6, -43.6 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 325 WTNT32 KNHC 070232 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 300 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...KIRK EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON MONDAY... ...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.6N 43.6W ABOUT 900 MI...1445 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 38.6 North, longitude 43.6 West. Kirk is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). An even faster east-northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is expected, Kirk is forecast to become a large and strong extratropical low during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, portions of Atlantic Canada, and the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 070231 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0300 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 43.6W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. 50 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT.......260NE 270SE 190SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..350NE 480SE 540SW 400NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.6N 43.6W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.9N 44.7W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 41.0N 39.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 50 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...260NE 290SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 42.9N 33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 140SE 120SW 70NW. 34 KT...220NE 290SE 250SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 100SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT...180NE 270SE 250SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 43.8N 16.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 240SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.6N 6.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 180SE 180SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.1N 3.7E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 130SE 150SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.6N 43.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

...MILTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 7:00 PM CDT Sun Oct 6 the center of Milton was located near 22.5, -93.4 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 950 WTNT34 KNHC 062355 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 ...MILTON EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 93.4W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida early Monday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 93.4 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected tonight. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico Monday and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning Monday afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 062341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean,
and on Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable for some development of this system while it
moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde
Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 06 Oct 2024 21:48:07 GMT