Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT42 KNHC 070839 TCDAT2 Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 Kirk has almost completed extratropical transition. The inner core of the system has basically collapsed and deep convection is limited to the northern half of the circulation. The system is moving into a baroclinic zone, and it is expected to be an extratropical cyclone later today. The initial intensity is nudged downward to 65 kt based on a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Strong shear, dry air, cool waters, and a decrease in upper-level dynamics should cause Kirk to gradually lose strength. However, the system's wind field will remain large and Kirk is still expected to be a strong extratropical low during the next couple of days. The intensity forecast is in good agreement with the latest GFS solution. Kirk is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial motion is 050/26 kt. A turn to the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves within the fast mid-latitude westerly flow. This should take the extratropical low to the north of the Azores on Tuesday and across western Europe on Wednesday. Although Kirk is over the open ocean, it is still producing large swells that could lead to life-threatening rip currents across portions of the Caribbean, Bermuda, the east coast of the U.S., and Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 40.2N 41.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 08/1800Z 43.5N 21.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 09/0600Z 43.9N 11.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 09/1800Z 46.0N 2.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

...KIRK ALMOST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... As of 9:00 AM GMT Mon Oct 7 the center of Kirk was located near 40.2, -41.0 with movement NE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 837 WTNT32 KNHC 070839 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Kirk Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024 900 AM GMT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...KIRK ALMOST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... ...STILL CAUSING LARGE SWELLS AND RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 41.0W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Kirk. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kirk was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 41.0 West. Kirk is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h). An even faster east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is expected, Kirk is forecast to become a large and strong extratropical low during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kirk are affecting the Leeward Islands, Bermuda, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, portions of Atlantic Canada, and the Azores. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 836 WTNT22 KNHC 070839 TCMAT2 HURRICANE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 41.0W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 26 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 50 KT.......160NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT.......260NE 270SE 190SW 210NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 500SE 540SW 430NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 41.0W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.5N 42.4W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 42.2N 36.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 150SE 110SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 43.4N 29.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW. 34 KT...200NE 270SE 240SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 43.5N 21.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 240SE 240SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 43.9N 11.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 200SE 200SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 46.0N 2.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 41.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 070839 PWSAT2 HURRICANE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 3 19(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 08:38:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 09:29:15 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070837 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Leslie's cloud pattern has changed little during the past few hours. A fortuitous SSMIS microwave image revealed a compact inner core with the eyewall partially open in the south side. Most of the convective curve bands remain confined to the north side of the cyclone. The TAFB and SAB subjective and the UW-CIMSS objective satellite intensity estimates support holding the initial intensity at 80 kt for this advisory. Although the statistical GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models indicate a low-shear surrounding environment through the 60 hr period, the global model forecast sounding reveals 15-20 kt of 400-250 mb mid-tropospheric westerly shear undercutting the diffluent flow aloft. This mid-level disrupting flow could force the drier, stable air identified in the water vapor imagery into Leslie's deep convective core. This negative thermodynamic contribution, along with gradually decreasing oceanic surface temperatures ahead of the cyclone's predicted path should cause Leslie to weaken through the period. The ECMWF and GFS model simulated infrared forecast now indicates that Leslie will lose its organized convection within inhibiting environmental conditions and become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. Based on the above-mentioned microwave pass, the initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/11 kt, just a little left of the previous track. Leslie is expected to move around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to the northeast of the cyclone and turn gradually north-northwestward to northward toward the end of the week. The official forecast is an update of the previous one and closely follows the various consensus aids. Leslie's wind radii were adjusted based on an earlier CSA/RCM-3 SAR overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 15.6N 40.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 16.6N 41.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 18.1N 43.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 19.6N 45.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 20.9N 46.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 21.7N 47.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 22.4N 48.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 23.9N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 25.8N 49.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 070836 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Oct 7 the center of Leslie was located near 15.6, -40.4 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070836 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 ...LESLIE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 40.4W ABOUT 1065 MI...1720 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 40.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days followed by a turn toward the north-northwest on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast to commence soon and continue through the week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070836 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 40.4W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 40.4W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 40.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.6N 41.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.1N 43.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.6N 45.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.9N 46.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 21.7N 47.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.4N 48.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.9N 50.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.8N 49.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 40.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 05:32:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 03:34:56 GMT

...MILTON MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON LATER TODAY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 the center of Milton was located near 22.2, -93.0 with movement E at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 975 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070531 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...MILTON MOVING ERRATICALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 93.0W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Celestun to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Cancun A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for portions of Florida later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 93.0 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 6 mph (10 km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southern Gulf of Mexico today and Tuesday and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 975 mb (28.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as this morning in the warning area, and hurricane conditions are possible beginning this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

000
ABNT20 KNHC 070519
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the central Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane Leslie,
located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on Hurricane
Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable for some slow development of this system while
it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde
Islands on Wednesday and Thursday, and interests there should
monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 04:02:52 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 03:27:33 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:44:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 02:44:56 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 070242 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 06 2024 Leslie has been more or less status quo this evening, with the hurricane characterized by a small central dense overcast that occasionally has a warm spot appearing on infrared images. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged for 00 UTC, while the objective intensity estimates are a tad lower than earlier. For now, Leslie's intensity will be held at 80 kt until there is a more distinct degradation in its satellite appearance. Leslie continues to move northwestward, with its motion estimated at 315/10 kt this advisory. The hurricane has been primarily steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast which should continue for the next several days, followed by a turn to the north-northwest or north by the end of the forecast period as it reaches the westward extent of the ridge. There has been a slight rightward shift in the guidance this cycle, and the NHC track forecast is a little north and east of the prior track forecast, roughly in between the latest TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. There are a couple of negative factors likely to influence Leslie's intensity over the next few days. First, while 200-850 mb vertical wind shear is forecast to be fairly low, undercutting this outflow layer is stronger 20-25 kt mid-level southwesterly shear. This shear appears likely to import some very dry mid-level air, seen on water vapor GOES-16 imagery southwest of Leslie, into the hurricane's small inner core. At the same time, sea-surface temperatures along Leslie's path are likely to be at least somewhat cooler thanks in part to upwelling from Hurricane Kirk last week. The intensity guidance, especially the regional-hurricane models, show quite a bit of weakening due to these negative factors, and the NHC intensity forecast also will show weakening through the forecast period. In fact, the latest NHC forecast shows a bit more weakening than the prior advisory, as Leslie's small core could be more prone to these negative conditions. However, this forecast is still a little above the latest HAFS-A/B forecasts which show more rapid weakening over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 15.0N 39.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 16.0N 40.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 18.8N 44.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 20.2N 45.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 21.2N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 21.9N 48.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 23.4N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 25.0N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070242 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Milton continues to intensify. The hurricane's center is embedded within a circular Central Dense Overcast containing very intense convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Tail Doppler wind data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the circulation is quite symmetric, with very little vertical tilt from 1 to 5 km elevation. Observations from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters indicate that the central pressure is falling and that the intensity has increased to near 80 kt. Fixes from the aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that the hurricane is moving generally eastward with an initial motion estimate of 100/6 kt. Milton is moving within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low- to mid-level cyclone currently over the eastern Gulf. The numerical guidance indicates that this cyclone will shift east of Florida within the next day or two, so that its influence on Milton will gradually lessen with time. As the mid-level trough digs over the central Gulf, the hurricane should turn northeastward with some increase in forward speed during the next 2-3 days and be near the west coast of Florida in the 72 hour time frame. After crossing Florida, the cyclone should turn east-northeastward to eastward over the Atlantic waters off the southeastern United States. The official track forecast follows essentially the same trajectory as the previous NHC prediction but is a bit slower, in accordance with the latest dynamical model consensus guidance. Again it should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. Milton should continue to traverse waters of very high oceanic heat content within an environment of light vertical wind shear and moist low- to mid-level air for the next 1-2 days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and shows Milton rapidly strengthening to category 4 intensity within the next couple of days. Thereafter, stronger upper-level westerlies over the northern Gulf of Mexico should result in increasing shear. The latest SHIPS model output shows the shear over Milton increasing significantly in 60-72 hours. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. Key Messages: 1. Milton is forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the forecast as there remains significant uncertainty in the eventual track and intensity of Milton. 2. While it is too soon to specify the exact magnitude and location of the greatest impacts, there is an increasing risk of life- threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning early Wednesday and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches will likely be issued early Monday. Residents in the Florida Peninsula should follow any advice given by local officials and monitor updates to the forecast. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida Monday well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected with hurricane conditions possible beginning Monday across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 22.4N 93.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 22.2N 91.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 90.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 22.9N 88.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.2N 86.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1200Z 25.8N 84.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 27.5N 82.3W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 29.6N 77.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z 31.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch