Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT12 KNHC 071441 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 22 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 WTNT22 KNHC 071440 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122024 1500 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 38.4W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW. 50 KT.......140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW. 34 KT.......250NE 270SE 210SW 200NW. 12 FT SEAS..480NE 540SE 600SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.7N 38.4W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 43.1N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. 34 KT...220NE 270SE 220SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 43.5N 25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 260SE 230SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 43.7N 16.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 230SE 230SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 45.4N 6.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 180SE 190SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 48.5N 4.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.7N 38.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

...MILTON CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.. ...FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... As of 10:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 the center of Milton was located near 21.7, -91.7 with movement ESE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 933 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 8:05 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 the center of Milton was located near 21.7, -92.0 with movement ESE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

Issued at 805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 710 WTNT64 KNHC 071305 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches). These changes will be reflected in the normal 10 AM CDT (1500 UTC) advisory. SUMMARY OF 805 AM CDT...1305 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 92.0W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 735 MI...11185 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Blake

483
ABNT20 KNHC 071136
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kirk, located over the north-central Atlantic Ocean, on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear marginally
favorable for some slow development of this system while it moves
westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic.
The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo Verde Islands
on Thursday or early Friday, and interests there should monitor its
progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 071149 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Special Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Recent data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton continues to rapidly strengthen. The Air Force aircraft very recently reported a peak flight-level wind of 120 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 945 mb, which is down about 9 mb from a previous dropsonde report from the NOAA aircraft about an hour ago. This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 110 kt, and to increase the short term intensity forecast that now shows a peak wind speed of 135 kt in 24 hours. The aircraft fixes were also a little south of the previous forecast track and a southward adjustment to the official track forecast has been made through 36 hours. Hurricane-force winds are explicitly forecast to affect the northern coast of Yucatan, and residents in that area should rush preparations to completion. The updated track forecast has necessitated the government of Mexico to issue a Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Celestun southward to Campeche. The storm surge forecast has been increased to 3 to 5 feet above ground level for portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. No changes to the NHC track or intensity forecast were made after 36 hours. This special advisory was issued in lieu of the normal intermediate advisory. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A life-threatening storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1200Z 21.8N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 130 KT 150 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake/Brown

Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 071147 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Special Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW MILTON RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 92.2W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning from south of Celestun to Campeche. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Campeche to south of Celestun * Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * Campeche to south of Celestun A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee * Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is expected, and Milton is forecast to become an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane later today and maintain that intensity for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches) based Air Force dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin as early as this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1200 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 071147 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1200 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 1200Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 10(33) 1(34) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 12(40) 1(41) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) X(34) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 13(46) X(46) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 8(50) X(50) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 8(56) 1(57) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 12(70) X(70) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) X(35) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 12(70) X(70) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 10(35) X(35) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 10(64) X(64) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 7(27) X(27) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 45(47) 5(52) X(52) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 4(46) X(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) X(37) X(37) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 32(44) X(44) X(44) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 61(71) 2(73) X(73) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 1(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 54(59) 2(61) X(61) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 74(85) 2(87) X(87) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 54(55) 3(58) X(58) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 1(35) X(35) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 71(76) 5(81) X(81) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 3(50) X(50) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 2(29) X(29) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) 4(57) X(57) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 4(28) X(28) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 2(35) X(35) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 7 86(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MERIDA MX 50 X 47(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MERIDA MX 64 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COZUMEL MX 34 1 7( 8) 24(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) COZUMEL MX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 10(35) X(35) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 18(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 1200 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 934 WTNT24 KNHC 071147 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1200 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.2W AT 07/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.2W AT 07/1200Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 92.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW MILTON RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO... As of 7:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 the center of Milton was located near 21.8, -92.2 with movement ESE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 945 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 071100 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 600 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MILTON A MAJOR HURRICANE... Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aicraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a major hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). Milton is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 954 mb (28.17 inches). A special advisory will be issued by 7 AM CDT (1200 UTC) to reflect this change and update the forecast. SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 92.4W ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown/Blake

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 10:30:24 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 09:33:35 GMT

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 412 WTNT44 KNHC 070907 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Milton continues to produce a central dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C, and since the last advisory a small ragged eye has been present. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to the 80-100 kt range, and based on this the initial intensity is raised to 85 kt. The center has nudged a little southward over the past several hours, and the initial motion is now 105/7 kt. Milton is moving within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the southwest side of a low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The global models suggest the mid-level trough and surface low should move eastward into the Atlantic during the next 48 h, with a second mid- to upper-level trough digging into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Milton to move east-southeastward to eastward for the next 36 h or so, followed by a turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed. The track guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will cross the Florida Peninsula, but there remains significant differences in both the location and timing of landfall. The UKMET is fastest and farthest to the east, the GFS is slower and much farther north, and the Canadian being the slowest and keeping the storm offshore more than 24 h longer than the other models. The new forecast track calls for the center to reach the Florida west coast between 60-72 h in best agreement with the ECMWF and the multimodel consensus. It should be noted that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus on the exact track. After landfall, Milton should turn more eastward as it becomes extratropical. For the first 36 h or so, Milton should be on an environment of moderate shear over warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the intensity forecast continues to call for the cyclone to become a category 4 hurricane. After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. After landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition, which should be complete by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A dangerous storm surge with damaging waves is also likely along portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. 2. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are now in effect for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and residents in that area should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so. 3. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 22.1N 92.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 91.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 22.2N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 23.1N 87.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 070857 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 11(34) X(34) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 13(41) X(41) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) X(23) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 7(35) X(35) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 12(46) X(46) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) X(17) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 42(43) 7(50) X(50) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 9(57) X(57) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 12(70) 1(71) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 10(36) X(36) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 58(59) 11(70) 1(71) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 10(36) X(36) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 10(64) X(64) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 6(27) X(27) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 45(47) 6(53) X(53) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 41(43) 3(46) X(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 2(23) X(23) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 1(21) X(21) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 1(39) X(39) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 32(45) 1(46) X(46) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 61(72) 2(74) X(74) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 1(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 55(60) 2(62) X(62) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 1(31) X(31) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 74(86) 1(87) X(87) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 55(56) 2(58) X(58) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 1(36) X(36) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 71(77) 4(81) X(81) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 48(48) 2(50) X(50) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 2(30) X(30) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 50(53) 5(58) X(58) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 4(28) X(28) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 1(35) X(35) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 1(16) X(16) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 6 61(67) 2(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) MERIDA MX 50 X 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) MERIDA MX 64 X 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 34 1 5( 6) 17(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) COZUMEL MX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) 1(36) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 17(42) 2(44) X(44) X(44) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...MILTON STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Oct 7 the center of Milton was located near 22.1, -92.6 with movement ESE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070857 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...MILTON STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 92.6W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Rio Lagartos. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Gulf coast of Florida from Chokoloskee northward to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay, and the Dry Tortugas. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast west of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, and south of Chokoloskee to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Celestun to Rio Lagartos A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Rio Lagartos to Cancun A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee * Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 92.6 West. Milton is moving toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major hurricane later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches across portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula.. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin as early as this morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are affecting the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and eastward along much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070856 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0900 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.6W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 92.6W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.9N 91.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 22.2N 89.4W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.1N 87.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 92.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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