Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 080238 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 89.9W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 210SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 89.9W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 90.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.3N 88.6W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 86.7W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 84.9W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.1N 83.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.6N 80.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 160SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.4N 77.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 170SE 150SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 30.3N 69.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 170SE 200SW 160NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 31.0N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 120SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 89.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080238 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 43.5W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 105SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 43.5W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 43.0W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.6N 44.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.0N 46.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.2N 47.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.0N 48.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.8N 49.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 50.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 28.0N 48.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 32.0N 43.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 43.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

...CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD LOW... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... As of 7:00 PM CDT Mon Oct 7 the center of Milton was located near 21.9, -90.4 with movement E at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 897 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 180 mph.

Issued at 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 072354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON HAS FALLEN TO A NEAR RECORD LOW... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 90.4W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...897 MB...26.49 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Campeche to south of Celestun * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * Campeche to south of Celestun * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 90.4 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east- northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 897 mb (26.49 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions currently occurring. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch/Papin

000
ABNT20 KNHC 072331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An elongated area of low pressure located across portions of South
Florida, the Florida Straits, and the northwestern Bahamas is
expected to move northeastward into the southwestern Atlantic by
tomorrow. Some additional tropical or subtropical development is
possible while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward
around 15 mph. However, upper-level winds are likely to increase by
Wednesday, which should limit any further development after that
time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable for some limited development of this system
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic, crossing the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday or
early Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 22:19:19 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 21:31:44 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 20:59:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 20:59:23 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 072058 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Satellite images indicate that Milton is quite a powerful hurricane. The small eye has become even more distinct than earlier today, and radar data from Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with a very strong eyewall presentation. On the last fix before the plane departed a few hours ago, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter crew reported that the pressure had fallen to 911 mb, which is 77 mb lower than yesterday at the same time, with other data to support 150 kt. Since the satellite imagery continues to show intensification, the initial wind speed is set to 155 kt, and a pair of Hurricane Hunters should be in the area this evening for more information. The hurricane is moving eastward at about 9 kt. Milton should move close to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early Tuesday ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This feature should then cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed later on Tuesday and Wednesday. Little change was made to the previous forecast, with the latest model guidance very close to the previous forecast cycle, and this forecast remains close to a consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models. Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south. Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and very warm waters providing a conducive environment. However, radar data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer eyewall. The evolution will likely cause the system to gradually weaken on Tuesday but grow larger. On Wednesday, Milton is expected to encounter a less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment, with further weakening forecast. Regardless, the system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland. Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from their local emergency management officials, as Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. 2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so. 3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion of the entire Florida Peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this area early Wednesday. 4. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 21.8N 90.8W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W 160 KT 185 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W 150 KT 175 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 140 KT 160 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 20:57:44 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 072057 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... ...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida south of Bonita Beach to Flamingo, including Lake Okeechobee, and north of the mouth of the Suwannee River northward and westward to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for all of the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. east coast from Sebastian Inlet Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina, including the St. Johns River. A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the east coast of the Florida Peninsula from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the east coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Campeche to south of Celestun * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * Campeche to south of Celestun * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line southward to Flamingo * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 90.8 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east- northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 905 mb (26.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin soon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake/Brown

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 072057 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 155 KTS...180 MPH...285 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 2(18) X(18) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 2(44) X(44) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 46(49) 2(51) X(51) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 2(33) X(33) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 42(47) 1(48) X(48) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) X(21) X(21) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 57(62) 2(64) X(64) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 2(30) X(30) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 58(67) 1(68) X(68) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) X(36) X(36) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 62(72) 1(73) X(73) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) X(36) X(36) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 67(80) 1(81) X(81) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) 2(46) X(46) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 67(80) 1(81) X(81) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 42(44) 2(46) X(46) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 1(23) X(23) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 55(69) 2(71) X(71) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 1(30) X(30) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 41(55) X(55) X(55) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) X(14) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 29(44) 1(45) X(45) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17) X(17) X(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 10(37) X(37) X(37) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 32(41) 8(49) X(49) X(49) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 49(55) 21(76) X(76) X(76) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 20(37) X(37) X(37) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) 31(67) X(67) X(67) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) X(34) X(34) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) X(15) X(15) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 58(63) 30(93) X(93) X(93) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 44(70) X(70) X(70) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 36(47) X(47) X(47) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 38(41) 49(90) X(90) X(90) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 57(69) X(69) X(69) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 42(46) 1(47) X(47) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 50(70) X(70) X(70) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 39(41) X(41) X(41) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) X(17) X(17) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 18(27) 1(28) X(28) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 20(37) X(37) X(37) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MACON GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MERIDA MX 34 90 X(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) MERIDA MX 50 16 X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MERIDA MX 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 2 19(21) 3(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) COZUMEL MX 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 3(37) X(37) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 17(18) 28(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 072056 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 90.8W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 905 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 90.8W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 91.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W MAX WIND 160 KT...GUSTS 195 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 65SE 65SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 170SE 150SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 150SE 200SW 160NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 120SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 90.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 20:34:58 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 07 Oct 2024 21:23:13 GMT

Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 072034 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Mon Oct 07 2024 Leslie's convective organization continues to become a little less organized this afternoon, although deep convection has persisted over the center with cloud tops near -80C. A recent AMSR2 microwave pass shows that the inner core has deteriorated from imagery earlier today. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates range from 60 to 75 kt. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 70 kt. The system is moving northwestward, or 315/12 kt. The hurricane is rounding the edge of a subtropical ridge over the central/east Atlantic. The system should continue to move northwestward with a gradual turn more north-northwestward then northward by the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is slightly faster than the previous forecast and was adjusted slightly to the right towards the latest consensus aids. Leslie will remain in a marginal environment for the next day or two, with warm sea surface temperatures and low to moderate wind shear. However, the system is entering a much drier air mass. Beyond 48 h, shear will also increase as the mid-levels will continue to be dry. Intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement with gradual then steady weakening throughout the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast follows these weakening trends and lies near the model consensus. Model simulated satellite imagery depicts that by day 4, the shear and drier air will cause Leslie to lose convection and the system is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 17.4N 42.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 18.6N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 20.2N 45.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 21.5N 46.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 22.6N 47.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/0600Z 23.3N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 24.2N 49.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 26.3N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z 30.0N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 072033 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...LESLIE WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Oct 7 the center of Leslie was located near 17.4, -42.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 072032 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 42.1W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 42.1W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 41.7W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.6N 43.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.2N 45.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.5N 46.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.6N 47.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.3N 48.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.2N 49.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.3N 49.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.0N 46.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 42.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 268 WTNT34 KNHC 071735 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 ...MILTON EXPLOSIVELY INTENSIFIES WITH 175-MPH WINDS... ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 91.3W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Campeche to south of Celestun * Florida Gulf coast from Chokoloskee to the mouth of the Suwanee River, including Tampa Bay * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * Campeche to south of Celestun A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Florida Gulf coast from Flamingo to south of Chokoloskee * Florida Gulf coast north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be issued this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 91.3 West. Milton is moving toward the east near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected today followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 911 mb (26.90 inches) based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Hurricane Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico beginning late today or tonight, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area in Florida on Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to continue to affect much of the whole Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071736
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and
has issued the final advisory on Post-Tropical Cyclone Kirk,
located over the North Atlantic Ocean.

Southwestern Atlantic:
An area of disturbed weather located across portions of South
Florida, the Florida Straits and the northwestern Bahamas is
expected to move northeastward, where an area of low pressure could
form near the northwestern Bahamas. Some limited tropical or
subtropical development is possible while the low moves
northeastward to east-northeastward around 15 mph. However,
upper-level winds are likely to increase in a couple days, which
should prevent any further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for some slow development of this system while
it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. The system is expected to move near or over the Cabo
Verde Islands on Thursday or early Friday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen