Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 081435 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...LESLIE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Oct 8 the center of Leslie was located near 19.4, -45.6 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 081434 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 ...LESLIE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 45.6W ABOUT 1435 MI...2305 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 45.6 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion is expected today, follow by a turn to the north late Wednesday and to the northeast by Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little significant change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 081434 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 45.6W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 45.6W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 45.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.5N 46.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 47.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.6N 48.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 49.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.3N 48.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.7N 43.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 34.0N 36.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 45.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS... As of 7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 the center of Milton was located near 22.5, -88.8 with movement ENE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 929 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Issued at 700 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 924 WTNT34 KNHC 081154 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...RESIDENTS IN FLORIDA ARE URGED TO USE TODAY TO PREPARE FOR MILTON'S ARRIVAL AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 88.8W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.43 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from the Volusia/Brevard County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the southeast coast of Florida south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to Flamingo, and for the northeast coast of Florida north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River. The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings south of Celestun. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * East coast of Florida from the Volusia/Brevard County Line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to Flamingo * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.8 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the east-northeast and northeast is expected today and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton is forecast to move just north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday. The hurricane is forecast to make landfall in Florida Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure based on aircraft dropsonde data is 929 mb (27.43 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Volusia/Brevard County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and areal flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in the warning area in Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas in Mexico today, and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in tropical storm warning area today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east coast of Florida in the warning areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning late Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the east coast of Florida by Wednesday night and along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 11:59:42 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 09:29:25 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 11:56:49 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081134
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and
on Hurricane Milton, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A broad area of low pressure is near the northern Bahamas with
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of
this system is possible during the next day or so while the low
moves northeastward to east-northeastward around 15 mph. Upper-
level winds are likely to increase later in the week, which should
limit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a couple of days. Afterward, environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable for some limited development of this system
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic, moving near the Cabo Verde Islands on Thursday or
early Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 10:23:30 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 09:21:40 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 08:37:40 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 09:23:12 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 08:37:35 GMT

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080836 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 This morning's satellite presentation consists of a shrinking cold cloud top (-73C) irregular-shaped central dense overcast and curved banding features in the south and north portion of the cyclone. A recent METOP-B scatterometer pass revealed a somewhat distorted asymmetric circulation located near the southeastern edge of the convective mass. A blend of the AiDT/DPRINT/DMINT objective estimates and a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis yield an initial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory. A mid-tropospheric tongue of dry, stable air is penetrating Leslie's deteriorating convective inner core from the southwest while mid-level southwesterly flow undercuts the diffluence aloft. The statistical SHIPS intensity guidance shows a significant increase in the shear magnitude by mid-period. This and the ongoing inhibiting thermodynamic surrounding environment should cause Leslie to lose its organized convection in 72 hrs, if not sooner, and become a post-tropical cyclone. Further weakening is expected throughout the period, and the official forecast indicates that the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low this weekend. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 kt. The forecast track philosophy has not changed for this advisory, and Leslie should continue to move in the mid-level peripheral flow of a subtropical ridge to its northeast through the end of the week. A turn toward the north is expected around the 72 hr period as it rounds the southwestern portion of the above mentioned ridge. Only small adjustments were made to the NHC forecast just to agree a little more with the skilled consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 18.8N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 19.8N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 21.1N 47.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 22.1N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 22.9N 49.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 23.8N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 25.0N 49.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 12/0600Z 28.7N 46.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/0600Z 32.4N 39.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 08:36:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 08:36:03 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 080835 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

...LESLIE NOW A TROPICAL STORM... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Oct 8 the center of Leslie was located near 18.8, -44.2 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080835 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 ...LESLIE NOW A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 44.2W ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Leslie was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 44.2 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Leslie should gradually weaken during the next several days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 080834 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0900 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 44.2W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 44.2W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 43.8W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.8N 45.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.1N 47.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.1N 48.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.9N 49.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.8N 49.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 49.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 28.7N 46.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 32.4N 39.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 44.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 080834 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 The structure of Milton has changed significantly overnight. The pinhole eye seen yesterday has filled and earlier aircraft data showed a double eyewall structure. More recent microwave images show only one larger eyewall, and it is clear that Milton is completing an eyewall replacement cycle. These eyewall replacement cycles are common in strong hurricanes and often cause the peak winds to fluctuate, while the wind field generally expands. Based on the aircraft data from a few hours ago, the initial intensity is set at 135 kt. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Milton again later this morning. The major hurricane is beginning to gain latitude, and the latest initial motion estimate is 075/10 kt. A turn to the northeast with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today and Wednesday as the hurricane moves in the flow between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. This motion should take the core of Milton to west-central Florida Wednesday night. After the hurricane passes Florida, a faster east-northeastward motion is expected within a more zonal steering flow. Little change was made to the track forecast through landfall, but this prediction is a little slower while the system enters and moves over the Atlantic. Fluctuations in strength due to continued structural changes are likely during the next day or so while Milton moves across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. An increase in vertical wind shear will likely cause some weakening before the hurricane reaches Florida, but there is high confidence that Milton will remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches the state. After landfall, more notable weakening is forecast and Milton is now expected to become extratropical by day 3 when it is over the Atlantic. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance in best agreement with the hurricane regional models. Milton is still a relatively compact hurricane, but the wind field is expected to continue to grow in size as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today. 2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along parts of the west coast of Florida. This is an extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate immediately if told to do so. 3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property in the warning areas should be complete by tonight. 4. Areas of heavy rainfall will continue to impact portions of Florida well ahead of Milton through early Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash, urban and aerial flooding along with moderate to major river flooding. Flooding will be exacerbated in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 22.3N 88.9W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W 140 KT 160 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.8W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 26.0N 84.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 27.6N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 60H 10/1800Z 28.8N 79.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 11/0600Z 29.7N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/0600Z 30.4N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/0600Z 31.5N 63.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi