Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 884 WTNT24 KNHC 082053 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 87.5W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 918 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 87.5W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 88.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N 86.4W MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.6N 84.7W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.2N 82.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...230NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.1N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.6N 77.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 150SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 130SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 30.6N 68.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 120SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 87.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 20:34:38 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 21:23:12 GMT

...LESLIE STRENGTHENS BACK INTO A HURRICANE... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Oct 8 the center of Leslie was located near 20.0, -46.4 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 082031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 500 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 ...LESLIE STRENGTHENS BACK INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 46.4W ABOUT 1490 MI...2400 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 46.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn to the north Wednesday night and to the northeast by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Wednesday night. Weakening is expected to begin Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 082031 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 082031 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.4W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.4W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 46.1W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.0N 47.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.1N 48.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.0N 49.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 50.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.5N 49.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.4N 48.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N 42.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 34.6N 34.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 46.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 17:42:20 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 15:29:27 GMT

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT MILTON'S INTENSITY HAS REBOUNDED... ...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO... As of 1:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 the center of Milton was located near 22.5, -88.2 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 923 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081742 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT MILTON'S INTENSITY HAS REBOUNDED... ...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 88.2W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * East coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to Flamingo * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 88.2 West. Although Milton has been wobbling during the past few hours, its longer-term motion is toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-central coast of Florida through Wednesday. The center is likely to make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night, and move east-northeastward across central Florida through Thursday. Aircraft reconnaissance data and satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 923 mb (27.26 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Port Canaveral, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning areas in Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida Wednesday morning, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the extreme northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 081730
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Leslie, located over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean, and
on Hurricane Milton, located over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located just northeast of the
northwestern Bahamas is producing gale-force winds. This system
could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics over the
next day or so while the low moves northeastward to east-
northeastward around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are likely to
increase by Wednesday night, which should end any chances for
further development. Additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
a day or two. Afterward, environmental conditions appear only
marginally favorable for some limited development of this system
while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the eastern
tropical Atlantic, moving near the Cabo Verde Islands late Thursday
through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 16:15:34 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 15:29:37 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 14:57:30 GMT

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 081455 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Sequences of microwave images and recent Hurricane Hunter observations suggest that Milton completed an eyewall replacement overnight, and the new eyewall has contracted down from 22 n mi to 12 nm in diameter. However, it does not appear that the hurricane weakened much after the eyewall replacement, and it could have rebounded with the outer eyewall contraction. A dropsonde released by the NOAA P-3 in the northeastern eyewall recently measured an average wind of 156 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding, which equates to an intensity of 130 kt. The latest pressure reported by the planes is 929 mb. The recent aircraft fixes show that Milton has turned a bit leftward and is moving toward the east-northeast (065/8 kt). Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. The track guidance is honed in on a landfall along the west-central coast of Florida sometime Wednesday night. However, it is critical to remember that even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if the hurricane wobbles as it approaches the coast. After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday. Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to set in about 24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will not be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models, since these models should have a better handle on a potential positive trough interaction. Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. Therefore, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. It is worth emphasizing that this is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula today. 2. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on Wednesday. 3. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, and to be ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. 4. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 22.7N 88.4W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 the center of Milton was located near 22.7, -88.4 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 929 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 081455 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...MILTON FORECAST TO RETAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AND EXPAND IN SIZE WHILE IT APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA... ...TODAY IS THE LAST FULL DAY FOR FLORIDA RESIDENTS TO GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO BY LOCAL OFFICIALS... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 88.4W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...929 MB...27.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended southward along the east coast of Florida to Port Canaveral. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * East coast of Florida from Port Canaveral northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River, including the St. Johns River. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Celestun to Rio Lagartos * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * South of Port Canaveral to Sebastian Inlet * Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Rio Lagartos to Cancun * All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the Indian River/St. Lucie County Line to Flamingo * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Mary's River A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 88.4 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin later today and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west-central coast of Florida through Wednesday. The center is likely to make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida on Wednesday night, and move east-northeastward across central Florida through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall in Florida. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 929 mb (27.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Port Canaveral, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Milton will also produce rainfall totals 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Thursday. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning areas in Mexico today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida Wednesday morning, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the extreme northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through Wednesday night. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 081455 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 7(28) X(28) X(28) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 22(27) 7(34) X(34) X(34) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 23(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) 11(56) X(56) X(56) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 44(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 4(30) X(30) X(30) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 57(68) 9(77) X(77) X(77) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 33(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 16(16) 61(77) 12(89) X(89) X(89) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 15(56) X(56) X(56) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) X(29) X(29) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 17(17) 60(77) 12(89) X(89) X(89) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 15(56) X(56) X(56) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 13(29) X(29) X(29) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 54(70) 10(80) X(80) X(80) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 11(41) X(41) X(41) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 40(54) 7(61) X(61) X(61) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 29(42) 5(47) X(47) X(47) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) MARATHON FL 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 9(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) 5(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X 4( 4) 50(54) 20(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) 12(12) 15(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) FT MYERS FL 34 X 2( 2) 39(41) 27(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) VENICE FL 34 X 6( 6) 72(78) 17(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 40(40) 35(75) 2(77) X(77) X(77) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 15(15) 36(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) TAMPA FL 34 X 3( 3) 58(61) 31(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 22(22) 44(66) 3(69) X(69) X(69) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 38(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 28(59) 1(60) 1(61) X(61) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 20(23) 6(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COZUMEL MX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 15(40) X(40) X(40) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HAVANA 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 934 WTNT24 KNHC 081454 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 88.4W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 929 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 270SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 88.4W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 88.8W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.6N 87.2W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.2N 85.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.8N 83.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 140SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.1N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.1N 78.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT...110NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...260NE 150SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.7N 74.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...240NE 130SE 160SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 30.4N 67.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.8N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 88.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081436 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 Satellite images show Leslie has made a bit of a comeback this morning, with convection trying to wrap around the center. Microwave passes also display that Leslie still has some inner-core features including a partial eyewall. Overall, Dvorak estimates are about the same as earlier, so the initial wind speed will stay 60 kt. Plentiful dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere has been preventing sustained deep convection near Leslie, despite low-to-moderate shear. Leslie does have a short window where the shear diminishes later today and tomorrow, though Leslie will also be contending with less instability near the wake of Kirk. While some of the guidance is showing re-strengthening, the above factors generally argue for little significant change during the next day or so. The new forecast is nudged higher than the previous one, but lies below the model consensus through 36 hours. After that time, the storm should encounter strong northerly flow of over 50 kt, which is forecast to cause Leslie to quickly decouple and degenerate into a remnant low by this weekend. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/11 kt. There are no significant track changes to report as Leslie is being steered around the southwest to northwest sides of the subtropical ridge, causing the storm's motion to change to the north late tomorrow and then recurve to the northeast later this week. Only cosmetic changes were made to the last NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 19.4N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 20.5N 46.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 21.7N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 22.6N 48.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 24.6N 49.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 26.3N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 12/1200Z 30.7N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 13/1200Z 34.0N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 14:36:14 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 15:23:12 GMT