Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 090242 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KTS...160 MPH...260 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) WAYCROSS GA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) 15(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) THE VILLAGES 34 X 5( 5) 43(48) 4(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) THE VILLAGES 50 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X 5( 5) 63(68) 8(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ORLANDO FL 50 X 1( 1) 28(29) 7(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 6( 6) 69(75) 14(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 38(38) 21(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 13(13) 15(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PATRICK AFB 34 X 6( 6) 69(75) 14(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 38(38) 21(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 13(13) 15(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 7( 7) 62(69) 14(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 25(25) 20(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 34 X 7( 7) 45(52) 9(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) W PALM BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 6( 7) 32(39) 6(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MARATHON FL 34 2 9(11) 9(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) KEY WEST FL 34 2 17(19) 5(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) KEY WEST FL 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 2 57(59) 21(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) NAPLES FL 50 X 10(10) 21(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NAPLES FL 64 X 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) FT MYERS FL 34 1 42(43) 37(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) FT MYERS FL 50 X 6( 6) 32(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) FT MYERS FL 64 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) VENICE FL 34 2 78(80) 17(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) VENICE FL 50 X 39(39) 48(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) VENICE FL 64 X 11(11) 56(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) TAMPA FL 34 1 48(49) 42(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) TAMPA FL 50 X 9( 9) 52(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) TAMPA FL 64 X 3( 3) 33(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 12(13) 31(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 1 8( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ALBANY GA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 23(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 090241 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...MILTON EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 86.5W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Dzilam to Cancun. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 86.5 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected overnight through Wednesday. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 915 mb (27.02 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Egmont Key, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Egmont Key, FL...9-13 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Suwannee River, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday Wednesday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida through Thursday night. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast during the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 090241 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 0300 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 86.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 915 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 150SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 86.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 86.9W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.7N 85.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 26.5N 83.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 27.9N 81.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 35NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...230NE 140SE 110SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.5N 78.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...240NE 150SE 120SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...270NE 150SE 150SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.4N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 130SW 180NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.4N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 31.5N 57.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 86.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 149 WTNT43 KNHC 090240 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 This evening, Leslie's structure has improved further as deep convection can be seen wrapping around the center on GOES-16 infrared imagery. An earlier ISS-COWVR microwave pass at 2021 UTC also showed a small inner-core eyewall feature. Subjective Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65-kt, but objective estimates from ADT and SATCON have jumped up to 79 and 74 kt respectively, and thus the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt, in between the subjective and objective estimates. One thing that hasn't changed is Leslie's current motion, still off to the northwest at 310/10 kt. Over the next couple of days, Leslie will be approaching the westward extent of the subtropical ridge that has been its primary steering mechanism, resulting in a gradual slow down and turn northward by the end of this week. Leslie is then expected to be captured by an approaching long-wave trough, leading to a northeastward motion by the end of the forecast period. The NHC track continues to be in good agreement with the track guidance, and is just a touch west compared to the prior forecast. Leslie's intensity prospects in the short-term have undergone a reversal from yesterday. The shear that had been affecting the hurricane has subsided, and SHIPS guidance now shows deep-layer shear reaming under 10 kt for at least the next 24 hours. Even though Leslie has been traveling over a cooler ocean left behind from Kirk last week, the sea-surface temperatures still appear to be warm enough (27-28 C) to promote intensification, as evidence of its continued deep convective bursts which have helped reform its inner core. The intensity guidance has responded to these changes by now showing more intensification. In fact, the raw 18 UTC HAFS-A/B runs now show intensification up to 80-85 kt in 36 hours. In addition, the latest ECMWF run, not usually known for being at the upper-end of the intensity guidance, shows significant deepening in the short-term, with a forecast pressure down to 969 mb by early Thursday morning. Based on these signals, the intensity guidance was raised upward significantly in the short term, and now shows Leslie peaking as an 80 kt hurricane in 24-36 hours. After that time, a large upper-level anticyclone approaching from the northwest (partially related to outflow from both AL93 and Milton) should lead to an abrupt increase in northerly shear. Thus, rapid weakening is still anticipated beyond that time, and Leslie still appears likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 3 days, as its convection is stripped away by the shear. The intensity forecast is on the upper-end of the guidance over the first 36 h, but falls back to the guidance mean by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 20.7N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 21.7N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 22.7N 49.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 23.6N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 24.8N 49.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 26.6N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 29.0N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/0000Z 33.0N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 14/0000Z 35.1N 32.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 02:38:46 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 03:23:07 GMT

...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER AND COULD INTENSIFY MORE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Oct 8 the center of Leslie was located near 20.7, -47.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 090237 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 08 2024 ...LESLIE A LITTLE STRONGER AND COULD INTENSIFY MORE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 47.0W ABOUT 1060 MI...1710 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 47.0 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A gradual slowdown and turn northward and then north-northeastward is anticipated over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by rapid weakening by Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 090237 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

Issued at 0300 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 090236 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 0300 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 47.0W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 47.0W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 46.7W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.7N 48.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 49.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 49.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 49.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.6N 49.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.0N 47.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 33.0N 39.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 35.1N 32.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 00:00:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 21:29:13 GMT

Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082359 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 700 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...MILTON WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 86.9W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...902 MB...26.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dzilam to Cancun Mexico * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 86.9 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected tonight through early Thursday. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 902 mb (26.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area in Mexico this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday Wednesday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the extreme northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through early Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

000
ABNT20 KNHC 082341
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Leslie, located over the central tropical
Atlantic Ocean, and on Hurricane Milton, located over the southern
Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic:
Last-light visible satellite imagery indicates that the area of low
pressure located northeast of the northwestern Bahamas has become
better defined on the northern edge of a region of showers and
thunderstorms. The system is already producing gale-force winds, but
environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for
additional tropical or subtropical development over the next day or
so while the low moves northeastward to east-northeastward at around
15 mph. Upper-level winds are likely to increase further by
Wednesday night, which should end any chances for further
development. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next couple of days. Afterwards, environmental conditions appear
only marginally favorable for some limited development of this
system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands late
Thursday into Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Papin

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 22:13:13 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 648 WTNT44 KNHC 082054 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters found that Milton's central pressure had fallen to 923 mb in the last pass they made through the eye a few hours ago. The satellite presentation has improved since that time, with a thick ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a 10-mile-wide eye. This pattern yielded a T7.0/140 kt from TAFB, with several of the objective satellite estimates between 140 and 145 kt. Milton has again become a category 5 hurricane, with maximum winds estimated to be 145 kt. Another Air Force mission is entering Milton as we speak. Milton wobbled a bit to the southeast today, but the longer-term 12-hour motion is east-northeastward (075/8 kt). Milton is forecast to turn northeastward and begin accelerating later today as it moves between a trough digging into the Gulf of Mexico and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. Because of the wobble, the track guidance has been initialized a bit to the south of where many of the raw model fields think the hurricane was centered at 1800 UTC, and this has caused the entire guidance envelope to shift a bit south on this cycle. It is still critical to remember that even at 36 hours (around the time of potential landfall), NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 60 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact landfall location, especially if additional wobbles occur in the short term. After landfall, Milton is forecast to cross Florida and emerge over the Atlantic waters on Thursday. Milton is expected to maintain major hurricane strength while it moves across the Gulf of Mexico and approaches the west coast of Florida. Stronger vertical shear is expected to increase in about 24 hours, but even if this causes some weakening, it will likely not be enough to keep Milton from being an extremely dangerous hurricane when it reaches shore. Additionally, the first stages of extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the rate of weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models, since these models should have a better handle on a potential positive trough interaction. Milton's wind field is expected to expand as it approaches Florida. In fact, the official forecast shows the hurricane and tropical-storm-force winds roughly doubling in size by the time it makes landfall. In addition, the stronger-than-normal winds could occur on the northwest/back side of the storm since Milton will be interacting with a frontal boundary and beginning extratropical transition. Damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed today. Milton has the potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record for west-central Florida. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation, and you should evacuate today if ordered by local officials. There will likely not be enough time to wait to leave on Wednesday. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be complete by tonight. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. 4. Tropical storm conditions and a dangerous storm surge with destructive waves will continue across portions of the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 22.7N 87.5W 145 KT 165 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 23.8N 86.4W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 25.6N 84.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 27.2N 82.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 28.1N 80.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 60H 11/0600Z 28.6N 77.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 11/1800Z 29.0N 75.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1800Z 30.6N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1800Z 31.8N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

...MILTON EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY AS A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 the center of Milton was located near 23.4, -86.5 with movement NE at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 915 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.

Issued at 430 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 082130 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 430 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...AIRCRAFT MEASURES VERY LOW PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF MILTON... Recent observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the central pressure in the eye of Milton has fallen to an estimated 905 mb (26.72 inches). The aircraft observations also indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h). SUMMARY OF 430 PM CDT...2130 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 87.4W ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 475 MI...770 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.72 INCHES $$ Forecaster Pasch/Berg/Hagen

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 21:27:34 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 08 Oct 2024 20:55:26 GMT

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 082053 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 ...MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH... ...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 87.5W ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning along the U.S. east coast has been extended southward to Sebastian Inlet, Florida, and northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been extended southward to the St. Lucie/Martin County Line. The Tropical Storm Warning along the U.S. east coast has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line. The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini. The government of Mexico has discontinued the Hurricane Warning from Celestun to west of Dzilam, has changed the Hurricane Warning from Dzilam to Rio Lagartos to a Tropical Storm Warning, and has discontinued the Hurricane Watch from Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dzilam to Cancun Mexico * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 87.5 West. Milton wobbled earlier today, but the longer-term motion is toward the east-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin tonight and continue through early Thursday. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through Wednesday, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night, and move off the east coast of Florida over the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely while Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, but Milton is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb (27.11 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft Tampa Bay...10-15 ft Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Yankeetown, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals around 6 inches, are expected across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in the warning areas in Mexico this evening. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning late Wednesday through early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday Wednesday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast Wednesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the extreme northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible over central and southern Florida beginning late tonight and continuing through early Thursday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 082053 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC TUE OCT 08 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 145 KTS...165 MPH...270 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 17(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 12(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 34(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) THE VILLAGES 34 X 1( 1) 31(32) 23(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) 34(35) 37(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 30(38) 3(41) X(41) X(41) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 2( 2) 40(42) 42(84) 6(90) X(90) X(90) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 45(53) 8(61) X(61) X(61) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) PATRICK AFB 34 X 2( 2) 40(42) 42(84) 6(90) X(90) X(90) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 46(54) 7(61) X(61) X(61) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 39(41) 41(82) 4(86) X(86) X(86) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 37(43) 8(51) X(51) X(51) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) W PALM BEACH 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 31(65) 4(69) X(69) X(69) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X 3( 3) 27(30) 22(52) 2(54) 1(55) X(55) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) MARATHON FL 34 X 6( 6) 17(23) 5(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 1 10(11) 17(28) 4(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) KEY WEST FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 1 13(14) 62(76) 6(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NAPLES FL 50 X 1( 1) 30(31) 5(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) FT MYERS FL 34 X 5( 5) 66(71) 8(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) FT MYERS FL 50 X 1( 1) 30(31) 10(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) VENICE FL 34 1 19(20) 74(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) VENICE FL 50 X 2( 2) 72(74) 10(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) 52(52) 11(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) TAMPA FL 34 X 7( 7) 77(84) 8(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 51(51) 16(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) 28(28) 18(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 3( 3) 40(43) 13(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 32(41) 11(52) X(52) X(52) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) 1(18) X(18) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HAVANA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG