5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 14:58:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 14:58:12 GMT

Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 14:57:38 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 091456 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Milton's structure has begun to change due to the onset of strong southwesterly shear, which UW-CIMSS is analyzing to be 30-35 kt. The cloud canopy has become more asymmetric with dry air infiltrating the western side of the circulation, and the eye has also become cloud filled. The NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters observed that the eye is open to the south, and a very recent dropsonde indicates that the minimum pressure is up to 931 mb. Milton's intensity is therefore set at 125 kt on this advisory. Deep-layer shear is expected to increase further today and this evening, and continued weakening is anticipated. However, since Milton only has another 12 hours or so over water, it is expected to still be a major hurricane when it makes landfall tonight. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall. A slow decay in the winds is expected after landfall, but Milton is anticipated to move off the east coast of Florida on Thursday still as a hurricane. On another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where Milton makes landfall. Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to where the raw model fields bring the center onshore. We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at 12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30 nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where landfall will occur. Finally, damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall will extend well outside the forecast cone. This is a very serious situation and residents in Florida should closely follow orders from their local emergency management officials. Evacuations and other preparations should be completed over the next couple of hours. Key Messages: 1. A large area of destructive storm surge, with highest inundations of 10 ft or greater, is expected along a portion of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula. If you are in the Storm Surge Warning area, this is an extremely life-threatening situation. The time to evacuate, if told to do so by local officials, is quickly coming to a close. 2. Devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the west coast of Florida, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane while it crosses the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across the peninsula. Preparations to protect life and property, including being ready for long-duration power outages, should be rushed to completion. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 25.8N 84.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 382 WTNT34 KNHC 091456 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM MILTON BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...THE TIME TO PREPARE, INCLUDING EVACUATE IF TOLD DO SO, IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.8N 84.3W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 84.3 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northeastward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected through this evening. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and remain at hurricane strength while it moves across the Florida peninsula through Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast while Milton moves eastward over the western Atlantic, and it is likely to become an extratropical storm by early Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083) located approximately 80 miles northeast of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) with a gust of 57 mph (91 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 931 mb (27.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...3-5 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through Thursday morning and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida in a few hours, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 091456 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 2 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) WAYCROSS GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 13(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) JACKSONVILLE 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 4 18(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) DAYTONA BEACH 34 5 58(63) 6(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 27 52(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) THE VILLAGES 50 1 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 30 65(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ORLANDO FL 50 1 38(39) 4(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) ORLANDO FL 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 24 70(94) 3(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) COCOA BEACH FL 50 2 50(52) 20(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 20(20) 17(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) PATRICK AFB 34 24 70(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) PATRICK AFB 50 2 51(53) 20(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) PATRICK AFB 64 X 21(21) 15(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) FT PIERCE FL 34 22 65(87) 6(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) FT PIERCE FL 50 2 29(31) 15(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 34 15 48(63) 7(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) W PALM BEACH 50 1 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) W PALM BEACH 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT LAUDERDALE 34 11 33(44) 5(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) FT LAUDERDALE 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 4 7(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) MARATHON FL 34 7 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) KEY WEST FL 34 9 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) NAPLES FL 34 86 4(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) NAPLES FL 50 10 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NAPLES FL 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 93 3(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) FT MYERS FL 50 15 16(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) FT MYERS FL 64 3 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 84 12(96) 1(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) VENICE FL 64 54 32(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) TAMPA FL 34 97 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 22 45(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) TAMPA FL 64 6 30(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) CEDAR KEY FL 34 49 20(69) 2(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) CEDAR KEY FL 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 34 8 4(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALBANY GA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 19(22) 24(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 WTNT24 KNHC 091455 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.3W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 931 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 130SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 360SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 84.3W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 100NW. 34 KT...240NE 130SE 130SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 140SE 130SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 50SW 90NW. 34 KT...240NE 140SE 140SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. 34 KT...280NE 120SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 80SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 110SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 80SW 50NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 84.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 14:54:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 15:23:11 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091453 TCDAT3 Hurricane Leslie Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 Visible, infrared and some recent microwave images suggest that the center of the small tropical cyclone continues to be located underneath the middle of the central dense overcast. In fact, some of the recent frames have hinted at a ragged eye feature. The TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak estimates are a consensus T-4.5/77 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt, in best agreement with the Dvorak estimates. Leslie's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/9 kt. A gradual turn to the north is expected in about 36 h as Leslie rounds the southwestern and western periphery of a subtropical ridge to the east. Afterward, Leslie should accelerate toward the northeast in response to a strong trough approaching the cyclone from the northwest. The NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous one and lies near the TVCN and HCCA consensus models. Leslie is forecast to remain in a favorable environment for another 12-18 h. The intensity forecast has been increased to an 85-kt peak at hour 12 and 24, and it is possible that it could strengthen a bit more than that, as suggested by the HAFS-B model. By hour 24, Leslie is expected to run into a wall of strong northerly shear caused by a strengthening upper-level anticyclone in between Milton and Leslie. The shear is expected to cause Leslie to rapidly weaken during the 24 to 48 h period. While it is possible that Leslie could lose most of its convection in 2 to 3 days, the latest GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery show periodic bursts of convection continuing into Day 4. However, Leslie is likely to merge with a front and become extratropical in 3 to 4 days, and a transition to an extratropical cyclone is forecast at the end of that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 21.7N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 22.5N 49.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 24.6N 50.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 26.4N 49.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 12/0000Z 28.7N 47.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 31.1N 44.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 13/1200Z 34.5N 35.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 14/1200Z 35.9N 26.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 091452 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

...RESILIENT LESLIE STILL STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Oct 9 the center of Leslie was located near 21.7, -48.4 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT33 KNHC 091452 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Leslie Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132024 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 09 2024 ...RESILIENT LESLIE STILL STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.7N 48.4W ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Leslie was located near latitude 21.7 North, longitude 48.4 West. Leslie is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph. A slight reduction in forward speed and turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is likely today and tonight, followed by weakening through early next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 WTNT23 KNHC 091452 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132024 1500 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 48.4W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 25SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 48.4W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 48.2W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 22.5N 49.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 35NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.4N 49.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.6N 50.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.4N 49.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.7N 47.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.1N 44.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 34.5N 35.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 90SE 50SW 0NW. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 35.9N 26.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N 48.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM MILTON BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...THE TIME TO PREPARE, INCLUDING EVACUATE IF TOLD DO SO, IS QUICKLY COMING TO AN END ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 25.8, -84.3 with movement NE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 931 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 145 mph.

Issued at 1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 156 WTNT64 KNHC 091357 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...ENSURE YOU ARE IN YOUR SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING... ...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... Now is the time to rush to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. The next update will be with the routine advisory package at 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC). SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 84.5W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly

...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING... ...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... As of 9:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 the center of Milton was located near 25.3, -84.6 with movement NE at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 918 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.

Issued at 900 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT64 KNHC 091257 TCUAT4 Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 900 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING... ...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE... Now is the time to rush to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. Another position update will be provided at 1000 AM EDT (1400 UTC). SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.3N 84.6W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 091147 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 17A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 800 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON... ...PREPARATIONS, INCLUDING EVACUATION IF TOLD TO DO SO, SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 84.8W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...915 MB...27.02 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dry Tortugas * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach * Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 84.8 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A northeastward motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of Florida tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 915 mb (27.02 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...10-15 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...8-12 ft Tampa Bay...8-12 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...4-7 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida beginning this evening through early Thursday and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the west coast of Florida around midday, spreading across the peninsula and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the east coast of Florida tonight and along the Georgia coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area on the South Carolina coast on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. Hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will begin at 900 AM EDT (1300 UTC). $$ Forecaster Berg

000
ABNT20 KNHC 091140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Oct 9 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central subtropical Atlantic Ocean, and on
Hurricane Milton, located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Southwestern Atlantic (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a gale-force non-tropical
low pressure system located about 375 miles west-southwest of
Bermuda have become less organized during the last several hours.
Although environmental conditions are becoming less favorable for
development, a short-lived tropical or subtropical storm could
still form today or this evening while the low moves northeastward
to east-northeastward at around 15 mph. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become too strong for further development later tonight.
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings,
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
tonight or early Thursday. Afterward, environmental conditions
appear only marginally favorable for some limited development of
this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic and through the Cabo Verde Islands on
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 10:16:40 GMT

Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 09:27:34 GMT